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The
planned constitution, referendum and 2010 elections look to be a
grand — if empty — show
 Constitutions,
elections and a multi-party democracy are often welcome news among
the international community, but the terms mean little coming from
Burma's generals, especially in a new “democratic”
process that will likely turn the current junta leader into an
all-powerful president.
While the
constitution has yet to be completed or made public, exile groups say
the “basic principles” that guide it specifically
preclude anyone from serving as president who has a spouse, children
or spouses of children that are citizens of a foreign country—a
rule designed to exclude Aung San Suu Kyi, who was married to a
British academic and has two children who live in the United
Kingdom.
In a sign of how secretive the constitution-drafting
process has been so far, many people both inside and outside Burma
were surprised when the junta announced over the weekend its plan to
quickly draft a constitution, put it up for a referendum in May and
then hold elections in 2010.
While the
move would appear to buy the reclusive junta leader Than Shwe some
bargaining power in discussions over international sanctions, it
strikes most Burma watchers as ridiculous that the generals who used
guns to quell monk-led pro-democracy protests only five months ago
could suddenly lead the country on a path of genuine political
reform.
"This
constitution could have worked before the September uprising last
year," said Aung Naing Oo, a Burmese political analyst. "There
were a lot of people ready to give the constitution the benefit of
the doubt, no matter how lopsided it was toward military rule. But
after the killing of monks everything has changed. Now even those who
see the facade of civilian rule as better than nothing are not sure
anymore."
The junta
initially created the National Convention as a tool to undermine the
1990 elections, in which Aung San Suu Kyi's National League for
Democracy won nearly 80 percent of the vote. The shocked generals
refused to convene Parliament, claiming that the elected
representatives would first need to determine the constitution's
"basic principles" before taking power.
That farce has
dragged on for 18 years now, with the junta intermittently shelving
the convention when it can and reviving it when it needs to ease
international pressure.
If anything, the junta's announcement
provides a light at the end of the tunnel to what has seemed like a
never-ending process. But the new constitution hardly promises
anything that comes close to reform, and instead may give the current
military rule the guise of operating under a set of rules that meets
international norms.
India and
Asean leaders have already futilely urged the generals to include
Aung San Suu Kyi, who has lived under house arrest since 2003, in the
constitution-drafting process. China has consistently opposed
proposals at the UN Security Council to push for democratic changes
in Burma, but in January it supported a statement telling the
generals to move faster toward talks with opposition leaders.
"It's
a band-aid for the junta," said Win Min, a Burma analyst based
in Chiang Mai, of the planned referendum. "They faced pressure
from China to give a timetable, and the whole international community
has been pressuring them to give a timetable to the UN Security
Council. This gives China a way to defend Myanmar, where it wants a
stable military government."
The National Convention itself
provides a glimpse of what can be expected. Although the junta
initially tasked the 1990 election winners with drafting the
constitution, they represented only 14 percent of the initial 702
delegates. Over the years the military constantly watered down their
participation, so that by 2006 elected MPs comprised only one percent
of the 1,081 delegates. Nine political parties representing more than
90 percent of lawmakers elected in 1990 remain excluded from the
process.
The convention is dominated by the Union Solidarity and
Development Association (USDA), the junta's shadowy political arm
that is expected to dominate any election if and when one takes
place. Most of the ethnic and ceasefire groups are not
participating.
Moreover, the convention has excluded any debate.
The delegates were "virtually under house arrest," UN
Special Rapporteur Sergio Pinheiro said in 2004, and they could only
speak from pre-approved scripts.
The basic
principles of the new constitution are reflective of the military's
heavy hand, according to exile groups who have studied them. The
junta dictated the 104 basic principles in the charter's first
chapter, which will set the tone for the rest of the document.
The principles grant the military a place in the legislative and
executive branches, allow it to declare a state of emergency
virtually at any time and let it operate without parliamentary
oversight.
In addition, the so-called "detailed basic
principles" give the president tremendous powers. Whoever
becomes president will be able to work independently from the
legislature and be granted immunity from prosecution. To ensure the
constitution cannot be changed, the military has guaranteed itself 25
percent of parliamentary seats, and mandated that any constitutional
amendments require 75 percent approval.
"When you introduce
any kind of constitution, good or bad, changes are bound to happen,"
said Aung Naing Oo. "But this change we don't know for sure. No
matter how bad it is, if Than Shwe and his cadre of yes-men leave
under this constitution, then we will have a new breed of military
men taking over, so it might bring change. If Than Shwe goes and
hardliners go, then things can be better. But people inside Burma are
now talking about a scenario where Than Shwe becomes president. Then
it is not only a consolidation of power, but also the continuation of
Than Shwe's oppressive rule."
The referendum itself could be
a spark that triggers another uprising similar to what happened in
September, when the army shot into crowds of protestors led by
unarmed monks, killing at least 31. Opposition groups are already
organizing a No vote campaign, and many of the same economic
hardships that pushed people onto the streets back then still remain
today.
"There is a lot of anger and dissent on the streets
and people hate the military," said Aung Zaw, editor of the
Irrawaddy, a Burma-focused newspaper. "I don't know how they
will design the referendum to win the hearts and minds of people. We
just have to see, but I would be very surprised if people see this as
a compromise. I doubt it. The uprising is being crushed, but it's not
over yet. The people that desire for change remain
undeterred."
Although a vote on the new constitution is
expected to take place in May, the draft is still not finished. It's
unclear if anyone will be able to read it in time for the vote. More
disturbingly, junta order 5/96 mandates 20-year prison terms for
anyone who criticizes or even opposes the National Convention, which
basically would make No Vote campaigns illegal.
Given this
environment, not many people are optimistic about either the
referendum or the 2010 election. Some questions remain as to whether
the NLD will be allowed to participate at all, as the junta could
find legal justification to disband the party at any point. Moreover,
many 1988 generation student activists and political leaders remain
detained without charge following the September uprising.
"After
I saw the announcement of election and a referendum, my first
immediate thought was 'How can they hold elections when all the
elected people and activists are already in prison?'" said Aung
Zaw. "The military might see that it is safe to hold elections
because all the 'destructive elements'—as the junta calls
them—are in prison."
"Unless there is a very
positive gesture to make sure the process for a democratic Burma
includes Aung San Suu Kyi and alternative national leaders, then
people will just see this as the military's roadmap," he added.
"I foresee a lot of instability."
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Coal surge is unabated, raising environmental concerns
Vietnam takes command of the issue
If I say frankly, most of the people are not believe their
issued. WHY, they declared their constitution made by more than 1000 of educated persons from multi-field. But what they do, only read and approved without any comment prepared by SPDC, military junta's paper. Now pro SPDC are nationwide prepare to approve their constitution.
As per my calculation, they can win easily.
Because presently total members of pro-SPDC associations
are between 30 - 35 millions.
Also NLD can't arrange anything.
I can comment a lot things.
regards/IA