Nine years of
squabbling end, the Kuomintang make nice to Beijing, but problems
remain
Although the
re-establishment of high-level political dialogue between China and
Taiwan represents a breakthrough after nine years of stalemate,
opening the way for closer economic and social integration, the
honeymoon does not extend to the military, diplomatic or political
arenas.
There the two parties
remain far apart and Beijing will not make concessions on issues of
sovereignty or reduction of missiles. Beijing is relishing what is
clearly its role as top dog in the relationship, especially after
having seen the vanquishment of former Taiwan president Chen
Shui-bian, who China’s leaders had come to regard as akin to
the devil himself. Beijing is determined to keep what it regards as
its breakaway province on a short leash, remaining inflexible on
anything that touches on sovereignty or implies that Taiwan has a
separate identity.
Nonetheless, the
progress since Ma Ying-jeou won the presidential race in Taiwan on
March 22 has been astonishing. Since then, President Hu Jintao has
met four of Taiwan’s top five political leaders – Vice
President Vincent Siew, Kuomintang chairman Wu Po-hsiung, its former
chairman Lien Chan and Chiang Pin-kung, chairman of the Straits
Exchange Foundation, which has agreed to resume regular talks with
the Association for Relations across the Taiwan Straits, its mainland
counterpart.
“Today was the
important day in the history of cross-straits relations,” said
Chiang on June 12, when he met Chen Yunlin, the straits association
chairman, in Beijing. In July, Chen will lead a delegation for talks
in Taipei, the most senior mainland official to visit Taiwan since
the Communist victory in 1949.
This dialogue is the
most concrete result of the ‘honeymoon’ – giving
Taiwan semi-official representation in China and the more than 1
million Taiwanese who live on the mainland a voice to speak for them
in commercial, personal and civil disputes.
Beijing cancelled the
dialogue in July 1999, after then president Lee Teng-hui put forward
his ‘two-state theory’. The next year the Taiwanese
elected Chen Shui-bian. Chen quickly antagonized Beijing with his
push toward independence and bilateral talks were frozen during his
eight years in office.
The other fruits of the
honeymoon are the start of 36 direct flights every weekend between
Taiwan and China from July 4 and agreement to let 3,000 mainland
tourists a day visit Taiwan. Its parliament passed legislation that
legalizes conversion of renminbi.
The Taiwan tourism
industry expects the mainland visitors to spend at least US$80 each
per day during their stay, providing a badly needed boost to the
island’s economy. Cities and counties in Taiwan, even those
controlled by the DPP, are rushing to arrange exhibitions in the
mainland to promote their products and themselves as tourist
destination. The direct flights will also be a boon to the overseas
Taiwanese who have until now be forced to fly via Hong Kong, Macau,
Japan or South Korea. An estimated 70,000 Taiwan firms have put
US$150 billion in the mainland, making them China’s largest
foreign investor. They are the biggest beneficiaries of the
honeymoon.
“Until now, we
have been orphans,” said Chiang Wei-nan, secretary-general of
the Taiwan Investors Association of Dongguan, which has 6,000 Taiwan
companies which have invested US$10.5 billion in the city. “Other
investors have embassies to turn to. But our people could only turn
to us in times of trouble. Now we will have semi-official
representation. It is an important step.”
Taiwanese investors
will also benefit from an easing of the restrictions imposed by the
DPP government, such as a ceiling of 40 percent of their net value on
investing in China and limits on the level of technology they could
transfer. The new Kuomintang government will also make it easier for
Taiwan companies to send mainland staff to the island for training
and allow mainland firms to set up R & D centers there.
One factor in the
honeymoon has been the extraordinary response by Taiwan to the
victims of the Sichuan earthquake, despite the fact that more than
1,000 missiles are pointed at the island which could be launched at a
moment’s notice. The government has donated NT$800 million and
firms and individuals over US$2 billion, the largest of any country
outside the mainland.
The honeymoon will
accelerate the economic and social integration of the two sides –
but will not lead to a long-term marriage. It will not solve the
military, diplomatic and political differences. Taiwan wants to join
regional institutions like ASEAN and international bodies such as the
United Nations, the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund and
the World Health Organisation: it wants Beijing to stop poaching its
shrinking number of diplomatic allies. Here Ma is in line with his
predecessor Chen Shui-bian in wanting ‘more international
space’.
Beijing is not likely
to agree to either.
On June 11, the day
before Chiang and Chen were to meet in Beijing, the Taiwan military
launched its ‘Han Guang’ (Light of China) exercises,
aimed at repelling a possible invasion by the People’s
Liberation Army in 2009. The Nanjing military region, the one
responsible for capturing Taiwan in the event of a war, was the only
military area which did not send soldiers to help the relief efforts
for the Sichuan earthquake victims. Beijing has not responded to Ma’s
request to remove the missiles targeting the island. Within the two
governments, the military on each side is the most suspicious of
détente and regards the other with deep skepticism. This
limits the policy options of both Ma Ying-jeou and Hu Jin-tao.
Since Taiwan is a
democracy, Ma is under greater pressure to show that the honeymoon is
producing benefits for his people. As long as the direct flights,
influx of tourists and closer economic integration add percentage
points to Taiwan’s GDP growth and improve the bottom line of
Taiwan companies in China, the romance will continue and the two will
go on dating.
But what if mainland
tourists refuse to return and commit crimes in Taiwan? What if
Beijing refuses Taipei’s demand for entry into international
bodies and continues to poach its allies? What if the PLA in Fujian
sink a Taiwan fishing boat, by accident or on purpose? Then the
honeymoon will end and the DPP will be able to have its voice heard
again.
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