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Economics/Business Singapore Singapore's Lesson: Buy High, Sell Low
Economics/Business Singapore Singapore's Lesson: Buy High, Sell Low | Singapore's Lesson: Buy High, Sell Low |
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| Written by Our Correspondent | |
| Wednesday, 20 May 2009 | |
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Ho Ching's flawed management of the billions of public savings entrusted to her as chief executive of Temasek Holdings has continued until the last. Her successor, Chip Goodyear, formerly with BHP, moved in as CEO-designate in March and formerly takes over in October. But presumably it was Ho Ching, the wife of Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong, who took the decision to sell out of its huge Bank of America holding, an investment originally made in Merrill Lynch which was taken over last year to save it from bankruptcy. Now she has managed to sell out at what, at least on a six month view, looks close to the bottom of the US financial sector. The sale was completed by the end of March so presumably took place in the preceding few weeks. Since then the BoA share price has risen 66 percent. Temasek's loss on BoA alone is estimated around US$4.6 billion, or roughly US$1,000 for every single Singaporean citizen. Big losses too were sustained on most of the rest of the financial portfolio such as Barclays of the UK and UBS of Switzerland. Other huge losses were sustained by the even less transparent Government Investment Corporation, which invested Swiss francs 11 billion in UBS in 2007 and added to it in a rights issue in 2008. From US$60 in New York in 2007, UBS shares have slumped to US$13, having been down to US$7. Did GIC also sell UBS when Temasek was selling BoA? Or is its presence in Singapore, where it occupies the former residence of the president, too useful for bringing in business from Myanmar generals and other friends of Singapore? The desire to get out of Wall Street's black holes was understandable but the exodus seems to have been part of the group's follow-the-crowd mentality. And one wonders if it is not going to repeat itself. Goodyear's claim to fame was increasing BHP's market capitalization from US$12 billion to US$200 billion and a quadrupling its share price in his eight years at the helm. However, most of this was luck – the biggest mineral price boom for 40 years -- plus acquisitions made at increasingly high prices. Goodyear's reputation would be very different if Rio Tinto had accepted BHP's top of the market bid made just after he left office but with his support. Instead Rio's ego maniac chief executive rejected the offer so, having saddled itself with massive debt of its own, now going cap in hand to China. Will Goodyear push Temasek into resources because he knows about them and Singapore itself has caught the China-growth bug? For sure prices of commodities are down a lot from a year ago. But they also have long cycles. The latest investment focus of Temasek now, according to an executive quoted by Bloomberg, is "going to be driven more and more by China's economy and consumers so might as well load up more on Chinese banks." So Temasek is again following fashion, re-focusing on Asia at a time when Asian markets have already recovered a long way while its former western favorites are still languishing. Temasek still seems to think that Chinese banks made a good proxy for its economy and consumers. Just like Southeast Asia in the 1990s, China's economy can grow rapidly, but still leave banks with piles of bad debts flowing from government-directed lending. For sure, developing Asia looks a better long-term bet than the west, but discovering that today is not exactly evidence of being ahead of the curve. Quite how badly Temasek has done is hard to figure out because the data presented is scanty and unconsolidated. For example, in 2007-08 the value of its portfolio increased by 13 percent to S$185 billion but it is unsure how much of that was simply a capital injection from the government. There are also black holes like its subsidiary Astrea, which borrowed US$810 million in earlier in the decade to invest in a portfolio of private equity and buyout funds. Another fall for Wall Street fashion which will likely be reflected in pensions for Singaporeans. Meanwhile Temasek's local portfolio has been persistently trimmed and now represents only 33 percent of assets. Of course it may make more sense to invest in faster growing countries rather than in low growth Singapore where there are few new opportunities for a company which already controls so much. Nevertheless it hard not to conclude that some of these sales, such as the December 2008 sale of PowerSeraya to Malaysia's YTL for S$3.8 billion are not partly designed to generate capital profits readily available from long-held local assets. Ho appears to have made a career of assuming that smart people with the right degrees and loaded up with mathematical models in one hand and high sounding jargon in the other knew more than anyone else about investment. Thus during the boom years for financial services, Temasek followed the crowd, pushing the financial sector component of its portfolio up to 40 percent, most of it invested in just the high profile western outfits favored by Ho's Wharton-bred advisors.. Like the archetypal senior Singapore bureaucrat, paper qualifications seem to have counted for far more than actual experience running a business. Such businesses as these people run are mostly Singapore public sector ones shielded from the force of free competition. Even Singapore Airlines is beginning to look jaded in an era of low cost carriers pioneered by a Malaysian, Tony Fernandes and AirAsia, and the gradual breakdown of fare cartel. If nothing else, the record of Temasek gives the lie to notion spread by Singapore's ruling clique that they are the best guardians of the people's savings. Paternalism morphed into an arrogance whose full cost to Singaporeans is for now hidden by the opaque nature of the government's accounts, and the very partial revelations provided by Temasek. Singaporeans, gather your purse-strings and, together, pull.
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She cast a severe shadow on Temasek, which has floundered for years under varying degrees of incompetent management.
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written by Ah Kow , May 29, 2009
Hello Singaporeans. DOn't whine so much. For a little red dot on the map, Singapore is doing more than alright by most measures! OK so it is not perfect, but which country is perfect? Even in Japan, one of the largest and advanced economy in the world, you also see homeless people on the streets. They too make occasional mistakes in their investments.
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written by Yellow Earth , May 29, 2009
A better alternative for Singaporeans to do something constructive is to vote out the current government and elect a new one. Preferably a competent one that do not have immigrants from neighboring countries who contribute nothing but hot air.
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In absolute money terms, I doubt that the sum total of recent Malaysian corruption is greater than the BILLIONS lost by Temasek and GIC, as well as the Singapore Government's capability to safely protect its citizens after the Mat Selamat incident, therefore whether it is "better" than other neigboring governments remain to be seen. Kind of funny when foreigners who work in Singapore, especially from neighboring countries, who do not have to do National Service, tell Singaporeans to stop whining. report abuse
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written by Jolly fella , May 28, 2009
..When they criticise, they be so sarcastic and so cynical! When they say sweet things about the govt and the country, you always have to read in between the lines, and see whether it is a real compliment or if is a hit below the belt!
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Anyway you Singaporeans git a good place to live, despite whatever shortcomings in your government. But which country's government has no short comings? Your government is still much better than those in your neighbouring countries. So don't whine so much. If you want to contribute to the country, join the government and change it from inside. report abuse
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written by dawg , May 27, 2009
Eh watch what you are saying please. We the PAP dogs will not leave this lying ok? Don't you dare talk bad about our beautiful empress dowager Ho Ching. We will continue to defend her because her family pays us a lot of money. So please make our lives easier and stop telling the truth about Temasek.
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written by Yellow Earth , May 27, 2009 If I am not mistaken, Ho Ching was born in Malaysia. I dunno if we can return her to Malaysia, let her waste Malaysian public money instead. Err because of the racial discrimination, only place left for her would be Penang State. Would a free market bank / fund ever hire such a grossly incompetent CEO and retain her blunder after blunder? To think she was Asia's MOST powerful woman according to Forbes 2008. (No 8 Worldwide) http://www.forbes.com/lists/20..._Rank.html report abuse
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written by aol166 , May 27, 2009
When the economy is good, the minsters claimed they are responsible for the growth of Singapore and the GDP. They then upped their salary to obsene level never seen in Singapore. This is backed by the "economic" data and the heralded achievements of the Ministers. Then they showered themselves with their "rewards".
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When the economy is bad, the ministers claimed that it is no fault of theirs when the world is down. They have no "direct control". They said that we fared better than our "poor neighbours" or the other countries. Then they remove the GDP bonus from their salary and claimed that they had a pay cut. When in reality, their salary is the same month on month. At the same time, the "poor people" of Singapore lost their jobs, take massive pay cut and suffer even though it is through no fault of theirs too. Go figure..... report abuse
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written by aol166 , May 26, 2009
Singaporeans think that Singapore is the best. Why the hell are we comparing Singapore with Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand? Come on. Be logical. We are a first world country by any calculation. Then start comparing with Germany, Spain, Italy or even Luxumberg.
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We got world class transportation system? THEY got world class transportation system We got great pension system? THEY got the best pension system We got great Healthcare system? THEY got a better healthcare system Before anybody flame, I am planning to move out. Before anybody come up with they got higher tax, let me put it this way. We don't need higher tax. Our butter is 3 times more than theirs. And lately I found out that our LCD TV is twice theirs. So comments away, please report abuse
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written by 7th Son , May 26, 2009
>>"Without the Lee family Singapore would be a vassal state of Malaysia today... corrupt politicians, corrupt judiciary, corrupt police, unsafe streets, inefficient and corrupt civil service, religious bigotry, sub standard education, poor health service, and racial discrimination".
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written by 7th Son , May 26, 2009
Yes indeed, why not be fair? Let's begin by pointing out that not all SWFs "made gigantic losses" as so blithely alleged. Saudi Arabia's did not, neither did China's funds which in fact made a $10b profit during that very same period. Norway's SWF kept its nerve throughout, continued to buy at distressed prices and now sits on a decent profit despite its earlier paper loss. So what is Temasek's excuse apart from gross incompetence?
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The buck stops with Ho Ching and nobody else. Money is power, and hers was a political appointment designed to keep the levers of power in the grasping hands of the Lee family. Nothing in her CV qualified her for the post, in fact her disastrous investment in Micropolis against all advice as head of Singapore Technologies and the subsequent writeoff of $630m when it went belly-up ought to have rung alarm bells as to her competence for the job. She stumbled royally yet again when she bought Shin Corp, this time incurring a loss of a mere $1b or so. Had she been fired at that point in 2006 for screwing-up, Singapore's reserves might possibly have kept the majority of the $58 billion it subsequently flushed down the loo. There are some advantages to being a member of the royal family it appears, job security being one. As a parting gesture to 'investing for the long term', Ho Ching has now dumped Temasek's BoA stockholding in panic, suffering an unnecessary loss of US$3b plus. Should Singaporeans be really pleased or just pleased? >>"Without the Lee family Singapore would be a vassal state of Malaysia today... corrupt politicians, corrupt judiciary, corrupt police, unsafe streets, inefficient and corrupt civil service, religious bigotry, sub standard education, poor health service, and racial discrimination". report abuse
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written by Taneug , May 25, 2009
Let's be fair. The Temasek investment losses must be seen in the context of the current economic tsunami when all the Soveriegn Wealth Funds make gigantic losses. At least Ho Ching resigned and LKY asaid Tewmasek made a mistake. We begrudge Temasek when it is highly profitable and shoots it down when it makes losses. For a journal like run by westerners with a history of run-ins with the Singapore government, and which is inherenelty opposed to its liberal economic/socially conservative outlook, we cannot expect The Asia Senteinel, to be fair.
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The problem is that Singaporeans have it so good for so long that when it gets a knock, even as the knock hits all countries in the world, we expect the government to be immune from them. Singaporeans, some of them, harp on the Lee family. Without the Lee family Singapore would be a vassal state of Malaysia today. Those who have not read history would do well to familairize themselves with the two years Singapore spent as part of Malaysia. Only one foreign investment was approved by the Federal Government in Kuala Lumpur and 60 percent of its tax revenue went to KL. Singapore today would be like Malaysia, probably even worse. Corrupt poiliticans, corrupt judiciary, corrupt police, unsafe streets, inefficient and corrupt civil service, religious bigotry, sub standard education, poor health service, and racial discrimination. I know, I have lived in both places. report abuse
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written by Ah Gong , May 24, 2009
"If you don't like it here you can migrate lah to Ang Mor countries and be second class there."
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written by Ah Lian , May 24, 2009 I love it. Mm chye see . . . Some Singaporeans are really living in the woods . . . go and live elsewhere as a non-White then you will understand the reality and facts of life. My grandfather sure could tell. This is paradise on earth. He has passed on since. report abuse
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written by Ah Lian , May 24, 2009
We can replenish Singapore with people who are grateful to live here and have talent to contribute some more ! Thousands of Malaysian Chinese and Indonesian Chinese would be happy to come to Singapore after all the discrimination they get in Malaysia, and also will be happy to live in a clean environment and where things work. SIngaporeans always complain and complain, instead of making a contribution to the country. And always so kiasu and kiasee.
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a portfolio approach. temasek made over US$20 billion in china alone. indonesia over US$7 billion. therefor a $3 billion loss from boa is ok. Look at other swfs like norway, china, abu dhabi and dubai. They lost 4 times more than temasek !!
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written by Ah Mah , May 23, 2009
You want to live like a dog go to Indonesia. You want street fights & protests go to Thailand. You wanrt to enjoy apartheid as "non-Bumi" go to Malaysia. You want to be pushed around and be bullied go to any White man land.You want to compete fiercely to survive go to China & Taiwan.Oh my blessed Singapore! Those who have eyes but can't see. How sad . . . .
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written by Pah Lan , May 23, 2009
Actually it is a waste of tax payers' money to keep the critics in Changi for a holiday with free food, free lodging, free security and free medical care. It is cheaper for the tax payers if the government hound you until you become a bankrupt. Especially in a recession, some smart alecks may purposely criticise the government to earn the freebies in Changi so that they don't have to sleep on the streets.
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written by Pah Lan , May 23, 2009
Otherwise the government people and PAP will get very upset with you. How can anyone else do better than them? They are the cream of Singapore, and they get paid very very well, because they are the best of the best in Singapore, and that makes them the best of the best in SEA. The young Singaporeans should be more grateful for what they have. If they are not happy, they can migrate to Australia, UK or whatever. SIngapore can import mainland Chinese, Indians, Ang Mor, or whatever to replace them. Singapore is the cleanest and richest country in SEA, so don't complain so much lah.
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written by sniffer , May 22, 2009
i smell some government dogs in some of these comments. ah kong ask you come here play defense ah?
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written by hohoho kachingkachingkaching , May 22, 2009
dont you know we own you? you and all your money. not happy with me or my famiLEE? wanna taste the zest of bankruptcy? wanna go for a holiday in changi detention? just insult me or breathe at my designer hair.
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mind you, we watch our political critics more than we watch mas selamat. how do you think he escaped? save your saliva. let my scholar dogs do what they want. report abuse
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written by yc , May 22, 2009
There is nothing new about Singapore elite. She is the wife of PM Lee, who dares to question her.. Any right thinking person will keep their mouth shut, no mateer how wrong the decision maybe.
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There is nobody to blame other than the Singaporean system. Critise and you will be in Changi. This is the price Singapore will pay and continue to pay. There is one more purchase of the century by PM Lee darling wife that went bottom up in less than 6 months. ABC learning, Temasek spent AUD400M on the company that everybody knew is close to death. Everybody except Madam Ho. Moral of the story, never appoint somebody you cannot sack to work for you. report abuse
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written by Sons of Genghis Khan , May 22, 2009
S'pore's unique model of past successes, though still resillient amidst all impossible odds, is sadly speaking, utterly unsustainable in the long run. S'pore indeed needs a large & friendly land mass as a hinderland which will provide it with human resources, food belt, or just simply room to play & air to breath after a hard day's slog at the office, factory & other work places. Imagine S'pore's success would have been magnified 10 or hundreds of time more if she possesses enough land & space to exert her fullest potential. Take a look at Hong Kong, a similarly tiny looking city state sharing much in common in many respects. Take a deep ponder how lucky HKers managed to escape the worst ravages of the 1997 & current economical downturns simply by falling back onto the fond cuddle of big benevolent nanny China in time of need~all China needs to do is to just turn on the tap to allow in cash-rich tourists, loan a tiny fraction of their hordes of reserved currency, giving preferential CEPA access to HK goods, services & personnels etc to help HK tackle its difficulties. Compared these scenarios to S'pore's pathetic neighbourhood~surrounded & haunted by the worst of neighbours, Malaysia & Indonesia, which have the unenviable notorities of having committed mass murders & rapes of Chinese diaspora, practise racism against their minorities, jealous of S'pore's apparent success, eager to swallow up S'pore at any faint chance of weakness......S'poreans would really have wished that they should have had a better karma so as not to be in such a precarious situation.
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With the world power shifting decisively to the East & China once again playing a povital role, perhaps it is time for S'pore to look beyond its traditional horizons & perspectives & seriously ponder at a possible union with Greater China comprising the Mainland, HK, Macao, Taiwan. Before you do that, first you must throw out your apparent ignorance, snob, superiority complex with regards to the Mainland; & most of all your all-too-apparent Western-centric psyche (ie everything English & the West (whiteman) first attitudes~these are what Mainlanders hate most about S'pore). report abuse
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written by Smartie , May 22, 2009
Singaporeans are economic beasts.
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But sadly. They are zero when it comes to international politics i.e. motives & agendas. MM & Mdm Ho Ching are not crooks! 45 years after independence and the whole world envies and admires our achievements. A tiny, resourceless, red dot. Can't we see if Singapore sinks, Singaporeans ourselves will suffer. No one. NO ONE will help us in this dog-eats-dog world. So when foreign journalists write bad thinbgs about out government we shd always question their motives & agendas. Who, in fact, caused the global economic meltdown and spread it round the world? WHO? Instead of pointing fingers at people trying to salvage their economies they should pick on tyhe SOURCE. report abuse
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written by Focus, please , May 21, 2009
If Ho is to be castigated, quite rightly, for the losses, she should also be praised for the gains made during her tenure - which before selling BOA were rather impressive. I nearly choked when I read that Temasek has been selling BOA, just as financials have been turning the corner. (GIC has made a profit on its Citigroup investment as of now.)
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When one invests in the market, one can win or lose. No one wins all the time. The wider question for Singaporeans is this: has this adventure - of using people's savings to invest in stock markets worldwide - been worth it? Or should the funds have been put in more secure projects with much smaller returns? The Singapore government has been generous with its handouts and support for the aged and poor. Without playing the stock market with the people's money, could that have been achieved? Should this have been the way? That's something Singaporeans have to ask themselves. report abuse
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written by Ah Beng , May 21, 2009
"Temasek, an SFW, belongs to the people of Singapore".
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Of course it does. It was there if not fo MM (PAP).. Ho Ching baked the cake from nothing. The cake is still there though dehydrated because of the global economic meltdoen. Any big mouths out there who can take over, let alone make 10k a month? I hate empty vessels making lots of noise. Please look into the mirror and see the reality. report abuse
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written by Croesus , May 21, 2009
Temasek, an SFW, belongs to the people of Singapore, not the kleptocratic ruling family. That almost half of the fund's value has been lost through blunders, misreading of the market and simple incompetence would, in a democracy, give rise to street protests etc. Yet the PAP has everything so nailed-down that hardly a whimper is heard as pension money is squandered on the crap table of international trading. Ho Ching made a lot of merchant bankers rich through her narrow ability and gullability. Her demise is nothing short of a God send for this island. Temasek should rebrand and reinvent itself once the sullen daughter in law goes off to prune her geraniums.
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written by Limpeh , May 21, 2009
It is good to get knocked down once in a while, so that one is reminded that no one is a superman, or a super country, or a super state. Singapore needed this medicine because it was getting quite arrogant after a string of successes. Hopefully the mistakes of arrogance is well learnt, and it can come back as a better and stronger nation. This is similar to the knock-down that USA is getting. USA was behaving like a superman that would not acknowledge any wrong doing, bullying everybody, and thought that its system was the best in the world. But ifg America do learn from its mistake, it will rebuild and come back strong again. Meanwhile, PAP should give more freedom to Singaporeans to let their talent flourish. Let Singaporeans express their creativity, political or otherwise. Disagreement with the government is not the same as disloyalty, and does not mean that they are threats to the nation.
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written by Dynas Tee , May 21, 2009
During the long tenure of PAP, the traits of Kaisu-ism is ingrained into the Singaporean. People who do not make the cuts academically are regularly denigrated as born losers in society. Young kids who are not inclined academically are mockingly called "Normal" streamers. Entrepreneurs who lost out in the competitive world are satirized so much so that our bests are sheperded into the cozy world on MNC, civil services and the PAP. Now the only real entrepreneurial class seems to be the Doctors and Lawyers in private practises.
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written by Dynas Tee , May 21, 2009
Not all is lost if we Singaporeans take this unfortunate episode as an expensive lessons. We should not go around smelling the s**ts of foreign talents as if it smelt like perfume. What we need now is to groom our own talents and place more trusts in our own people ability than blindly thinking foreign talents can do the thinkings for us.
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In fact, our best talents compared favourably with their bests in China, Europe, India and US, regularly beating their s**ts out in maths and science competitions. What we need is the PAP to respect our people abilities? report abuse
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written by Dave , May 20, 2009
This is the Asian Way - pyramid, top down - which is why they will never overtake the western way of people power, we all have an opinion and all can succeed..not just the few
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written by Rambo , May 20, 2009
Singaporean track
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written by Dynas Tee , May 20, 2009
We will not be in such dire state if we has broaden our base of Talents. For a start, the foreign spouses of any Singaporean female should automatically qualify to be a Singaporean after meeting some basic criteria. Children from one parent who is Singaporean should be admitted automatically as Singaporean if they choose to do so upto a certain cut-off age says, 35 years.
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written by old man river , May 20, 2009
She, like the Lee clan have failed the country and failed themselves. All of them cannot live up to their exhortations of 40 years ago. LOOK EAST! Follow the Japs. See how they do things. Firstly, she must bow publicly to the people of Singapore and beg for forgiveness. She need not perform hara kiri. Just get out of the scene! Then old senile Lee must do the same. It is probably he that is the force behind Temasek. To placate her for the public scoldings, he gave her a medal for her duties towards the Labour Movement! What! What did she do for the labour movement? Lee must do double bowings and beggings - one for himself and one for pushing others to do his bidding. Wasn't he who said that investment is for 40 or more years? What crap! When he was in the opposition he would have torn the government of the day to shreds. Now he is waiting for the inevitable. When will it come? It will show on polling day. 1st world economics but 3rd world politics. He and his clique of paratroopers(they parachuted into positions of power) are like the 1st class passengers on SIA B787. Sooner the plane must land the the reality of life will hit them hard. The good life is not forever. His psychotic approach to the persecution of Chee Soon Juan will be the beginning of his downfall. The evil that man do lives after them. Poor Singapore. The iron fist will be passed on to the favoured contender.
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written by Wallis , May 20, 2009
Madam Ho has failed her investors, failed her husband's subjects, failed her father-in-law's belief in all things family being good for his one-family state and, ultimately, failed herself. She was deaf, blinkered and easily smitten by fast-talking foreign bankers and hucksters. She cast a severe shadow on Temasek, which has floundered for years under varying degrees of incompetent management. Old Square Face Thaksin took her for the biggest ride ever, no doubt charming the dour and dull spinsterish Ho with his wiles, convincing her that to be rich at other people's expense is glorious. She will no doubt be a happy housewife, changing all those plugs her fey husband has such trouble with.
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written by Dynas Tee , May 20, 2009
PM Lee Hsien Loong could render suffering Singaporeans a good deed by shutting down Tumasek for good, and quit using our Sovereign Wealth funds to save the Western institutions.
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Another eye-sore policy of importing Foreign Talents should also be scrapped to groom our own talents. We could also in fact emulate the USA to import more geniuses. These outstanding individuals may not be the one with the best or most paper qualifications being chased like crazy over here. report abuse
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written by puah siew hoon , May 20, 2009
Ok, my father got moderately affluent by first being kicked out of our kampung and then having to accept HDB flat with $50,000 mortgage. Now it's worth more. But I cannot see the same happening to me and my siblings. Our savings, particularly those held by the government agencies, are dwindling.
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Aristocratic lineage
isn't a qualification for financial management
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