Home 
Politics North Korea Top China Advisor Sees Possible New Korean War
Politics North Korea Top China Advisor Sees Possible New Korean War | Top China Advisor Sees Possible New Korean War |
|
|
Tag it:
| Written by Mark O'Neill | |
| Monday, 06 July 2009 | |
 This time Kim Jong-Il may not be bluffing
In an alarming analysis in an official Chinese publication, a senior advisor to the Chinese government expects North Korea to launch a war on the South in the belief that it has overwhelming military superiority. Zhang Lianggui, a professor of International Strategy at the Central Communist Party School in Beijing, also writes that he regards Pyongyang's nuclear program as posing a significant and unprecedented danger to China. Zhang, who has been at the school since 1989, is a specialist on North Korea, where he studied at Kim Il-Sung University in Pyongyang from 1964-1968. His analysis, in the June 16 issue of World Affairs magazine, is one of the most critical of the North ever to appear in an official publication. It reflects Beijing's rising anger with its neighbor and frustration that it can do so little to change its nuclear policy – despite the fact that the country relies upon it for supplies of food and oil. The first generation of Communist leaders had strong sympathy for Kim Il-Sung, who studied at secondary school in northeast China, spoke Mandarin and fought with Chinese forces against the Japanese. The current leaders have no such feeling for his son, whom they regard as a bandit. In the magazine, Zhang wrote that the world underestimates the magnitude of the risk on the Korean Peninsula. "If we look at the situation as it is, the likelihood of a military confrontation on the Korean Peninsula is very high," he wrote. "It will start on the sea and then could spread to the 38th parallel. If a war breaks out, it is very difficult to forecast how it would develop. North Korea believes it now has nuclear weapons and has become stronger. It believes that it has overwhelming military superiority over the south and would certainly win a war," he said. Since the end of the Korean war in June 1953, the North has never recognized the Northern Limit Line (NLL) which the United States designated at the time as the sea boundary between the two sides and which the South accepts. On January 17, it repeated its refusal to recognize the boundary. A scene of bloody clashes between the two sides, the area contains 2,500 islands and is rich in fishing resources. There has been a gradual escalation in tension since January, when the North announced a “state of total war” with the South. It has since then tested long-range missiles and a nuclear bomb. Zhang also said that the North's nuclear tests pose “a risk that it [China] had never faced for thousands of years.” Nuclear tests by the US, Russia, China, Britain and France were carried out in deserts or remote places far from population centers. But the North's tests are just 85 km from the Chinese border, Changbai county in Jilin province, and 180 km from Yanji, a city of 400,000 people. "The tests are close to densely populated areas of East Asia. If there were an accident, it would not only make the Korean nation homeless but also turn to nothing plans to revive the northeast of China," he wrote, asking why the tests were far from Pyongyang but not far from China. "The danger for China is extremely grave. We have not paid sufficient attention to this risk. If we cannot bring about a denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, mankind will pay a heavy price, especially the countries bordering Korea," he wrote. Pyongyang, he said, has never liked the six-party talks that have been trying, with Beijing's help, to get the North to relinquish its nuclear program because it regards the matter as essentially a bilateral issue to be settled with the United States alone. He does not believe North Korea will return to the stalled talks. "North Korea has turned from being a non-nuclear state into a nuclear one. In addition, it has at least 800,000 tonnes of heavy fuel [under terms of an earlier shut down of the country's main nuclear reactor]. The six-party talks have fulfilled their historical mission." Zhang said that Kim Jong-Il is racing to fulfill the mission given to him by his father before he hands over power to his successor, expected to be his youngest son Kim Jong-woon, 25. This includes making North Korea a nuclear state, a symbol of a powerful country: developing missiles capable of delivering these nuclear weapons, re-negotiating the NLL and obtaining possession of the five major islands in the western sea and their rich fishing grounds, using nuclear weapons to create a new international environment and achieve reunification. Zhang's assessment of Pyongyang reflects Beijing's anger against North Korea and inability to influence policy there. "Negotiating with North Korea is like negotiating with the mafia which is blackmailing you," said Wang Wen, a veteran Chinese journalist. "Beijing continues to supply the North with food, oil, consumer goods and other items it needs. The North does not pay. It [China] could cut off the supply, which would lead to a collapse of the regime. That would mean a unified Korea dominated by the United States. Pyongyang knows this and continues to blackmail China, like the mafia." He said that, to prevent this scenario, Beijing has continued to keep the regime afloat. "For years, it has been pushing the North to follow its example of economic reform and not political reform. The Kaesong industrial park is a small step in this direction, but there is nothing else." The park, a joint venture between North and South Korea10 km north of the demilitarized zone, employed 40,000 North Korean workers in more than 75 South Korean factories as of July last year. In June, the North demanded new average salaries of US$300 a month, up from US$75, which the South has ruled as unacceptable. The wages go largely to the North Korean government. "Beijing understands very well the mind-set of Kim Jong-Il," said Wang. "It is the same as that of Mao Zedong when he built China's nuclear bomb in the 1960s, when his people were starving. The Soviet Union did not help and the US wanted to bomb the site, but it built the bomb anyway. North Korea today is more isolated than China was then, so it needs the bomb even more."
Set as favorite
Bookmark
Email This
Comments
(9)
who cares
written by thomas E , November 12, 2009
It does not matter who is right or who is wrong, but, no amount of diplomacy, nor six party talks is going to change north korea's mind on its intention, or attempt on reunification. North Korea knows. that to start a war with the south will result in its destruction. They know that they will suffer the same fate as japan did in w w 11. This really comes down to china forcing the north to play ball. Testing a nuclear weapon so close to china's border ??, what message do you think it is sending ??. China' why let an impoverished country dictate their terms to you ??. I an sure that if you let the north collapse, you and America can work together to manage the rebuilding of that failed economy. The longer this goes on the more of a mes the world will need to clean up, i doubt if anyone will want to continue to prop up a non existent economy anyway, the north just is not interested in these so called six party talks.
Votes: +0
report abuse
vote down
vote up
lol u guys need to learn about international politics
written by Kevin3456 , September 18, 2009
dang are u guys seriously this dumb talking bout how china will reap what it sows for supporting a stupid regime. Yea Kim Jong il's regime is dumb as balls but the reason china is supporting it is because if they dont, thats America, its number one rival, having access to its borders via NK. You all act like u dont know this is the case or maybe u guys are just mad misinformed. Like every country does selfish stuff to advance their own position and the US and China are the same, its their right.. Just look at Taiwan and Tibet, America supports them cause it causes trouble for China, which is what NK is, China's way of responding to cause trouble for America cause thats what Rivals do guys, they try to win over the other.
Votes: +0
Gaz - yea the US is def. ahead and the s**t ppl say about oh the US is just as bad, so what, we f**ked sum peeps up but guess what, thats what it took to get us on top and we on top what now, but for Reals China is catching upp sooo not for loong Greg - NK aint gonna have the tech to Nuke the US lol they send out like toy rockets and No matter what the US will not Nuke NK, that would be the most ridiculous thing ever cause then they gonna get f**ked by the international community hardcore, plus the whole history with nuking Japan and the responsibilities of carrying the fact that it is the only country ever to use atomics on humans in war which we dont wanna repeat. Plus u act like China Aint gonna nuke the US back and the US china for some M A D fun. laserboy - Dude Jaebum got owned sux for 2pm huh report abuse
vote down
vote up
...
written by Gaz , August 06, 2009
China has been wrong from day 1, as it is with most things most of the time. It is now reaping what it sows. Personally I hope the north has a nuclear accident which severely hurts China. This is exactly what they need to show the new generation of Chinese that this is what you get for supporting a stupid government. This whole situation with the north and south just goes to show that the US, although it definitely f*cks up a lot of the time, is miles ahead of China and always will be.
Votes: +0
report abuse
vote down
vote up
The trouble with brothers' games
written by Javier Delgado Rivera , July 11, 2009
China backing of last June UN resolution on the maritime screening on trafficking of weapons out and in of North Korea may speak volumes. Pyongyang increasingly wild nuclear hustle, along (and chiefly, as a result of) the regime's cold sweat on grasping Kin Yong ill successor, could have forced Beijing to rethink the degree of its lent warm shoulder to the paranoid North Korean elite.
Votes: +1
I believe that, by gently but firmly reminding where the boundary has been drawn for five decades already, China can persuade Pyongyang to keep bluffing as long as it's given sufficient guarantees that North Korea plays within the rules. The trouble comes as Beijing won't share with the rest of the international community the basis of such a deceptive game- so here we are guessing. That's one of the game's commandments. Though China doesn't need to send messages to Kin Yong ill through its brand-new vigor on the international sphere, Beijing's slight leaning towards the camp of the resolution-supporters at the UN shouldn't go unnoticed. The principles governing Pyongyang's childish foreign policy may have been rewritten without the consent of its older brother. report abuse
vote down
vote up
Insane
written by Greg , July 09, 2009
looks like the DPRK is sending its crazed writers into this web site. China has kept the regime afloat and will reap the whirlwind. If the U.S. is attacked with a nuclear weapon, it will obliterate N. Korea. Does Kim Jong-Il and China really want this outcome? China needs to collapse this regime with the proviso Korea will be a neutral united nation. Before it is too late.
Votes: +7
report abuse
vote down
vote up
It is never OK to starve your people
written by laserboy , July 09, 2009
I live in South Korea and people here are so satisfied with their lives, generally. Their cities are modern. The roads are wide. Their salaries are like 2,000 USD per month average for regular employees. They enjoy freedom to travel, to eat anything they want, to watch any movie and tv show, to drink any beverage. People here are FREE and mostly middle class.
Votes: +5
The NORTH is what? People starving, not free. They cannot watch tv, no internet, no cellphones, etc. Now if you support North Korea, imagine yourself having KIM JONG IL as your leader... it is certain you wouldn't be commenting here because internet access is illegal! report abuse
vote down
vote up
China gets what it deserves
written by nanheyangrouchuan , July 08, 2009
China and Russia created NK and even after Russia cut off its support, China continued to support the psychotic Kim family to keep a modern, democratic Confucian society off of its border.
Votes: +2
China built and continues to feed this monster and will get the punishment it so richly deserves. report abuse
vote down
vote up
US Bullying, Lowly rated comment [Show]
What do you expect, Lowly rated comment [Show]
|
Subscribe to this comment's feed
Show/Hide comments
Show/Hide comment form
The Risk of Travel in AsiaOur Correspondent A new report by International Risk says it's a jungle out there
Full Story |
| Other Articles |
Separating North Korea from China
The Obama administration tries something new
Full Story |
| most read... |
Alice Poon
| Freedom of Expression Too Precious to Throw AwayThursday, 04 February 2010 | Alice Poon
In a free society, there will always be more than one single opinion. In a free society, it is accepted that everyone should have an equal right to express his/her opinion without fearing... Full Story |
| Previous posts: |
John Elliott: Riding the Elephant
| From vultures in Delhi, to coups in Pakistan, a journalist's un-edited take on current events |
Donate to Asia Sentinel
