| Thailand's Political Muddle |
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| Written by JCK Lee | |
| Wednesday, 28 October 2009 | |
 Crown Prince Maha Vajiralongkorn Thais were happy last week to see King Bhumibol Adulyadej out in the open after weeks on his sickbed. But the pictures of the thin, wan figure in a wheelchair were also a reminder of the uncertainties of Thailand without him. That Thailand's politics are convoluted is hardly news but the twists and turns can still surprise. Take, for instance, another event earlier this month – former prime minister, retired General Chavalit Yongchaiyudh, announced he was joining the Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party, the successor to deposed prime minister and now fugitive Thaksin Shinawatra's outlawed Thai Rak Thai party. Other retired military types did the same. Chavalit earned a rebuke from his former colleague, ex-general, ex-prime minister Prem Tinsulanond, who now heads the Privy Council and is widely credited with leading the monarchist drive against Thaksin. This could be dismissed as irrelevant. Chavalit and fellow retirees are yesterday's men and may be simply trying to find a way back into relevance. Nonetheless, it could also be seen as symptomatic of the fact that despite the apparent deep divisions in the country between the pro-Thaksin Reds and the anti-Thaksin Yellows there is still more than enough scope for opportunistic politics of the sort that brought about the current support for Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva's Democrat Party from former Thaksin ally and rural power broker Newin Chidchob. Purchasing the support of Newin's northeast allies secured the government but added to general cynicism about politicians, not least those claiming to be cleaning up after the Thaksin era. The Democrats now face a challenge from a different direction, Yellow Shirt leader Sondhi Limthongkul, the rabble-rouser behind the People's Alliance for Democracy (PAD) that led the charge against Thaksin, and his New Politics Party formed in July. The new party gives Sondhi a vehicle for his own continuing political involvement off the streets as well as, potentially, on. It may well draw more votes away from the Democrats than from other parties. Sondhi, a media baron, will continue to push his agenda through his newspapers, TV stations and websites. The new party's* proximity to state enterprise unions is also a worry for a Democrat-led government. The party's first leader was Somsak Kosaisuk, who led the fight against privatization of the Electricity Generation Authority of Thailand and is viewed as behind recent labor problems at the State Railway of Thailand, a corrupt and over-manned entity that many in the government and bureaucracy would like to see at least partially privatized. The monarchists need Sondhi, who proclaims monarchism as his party's ideology, but do not much like him. Abhisit makes a more credible leader than most of the alternatives but the Democrats could be hard-pressed on all sides when they face elections due in late 2011, assuming they take place on schedule. Put this mess into the context of a possible royal succession and it is no surprise that no sensible person will provide a forecast of the future. A hundred and one different scenarios can be readily sketched. In the more immediate future, there is the issue of what will happen to Thaksin's assets. Will they be seized or is it possible that there will be a deal to let him keep them so long as he stays out of the country and keeps his mouth shut? But can he just be an offshore businessman? It seems unlikely. But any kind of deal, such as the royal pardon sought by some Thaksin supporters, is also unlikely. Indeed he might fear for his own life if he did return home. Monarchist fears of him and his supposed republican sentiments may be exaggerated but they are still very strong. Thaksin may be loathed by many, but he is likely to remain second only to the king in popularity. No other politician comes close. Even in absentia he is likely to be a shadow over Thai politics for years, just as Argentina's President Juan Peron was for decades after his overthrow and even after death. Nor would the departure of Prem, now 89, likely make a difference. His probable successor is the like-minded retired General Surayud Chulanont, who served as prime minister after the military coup that removed Thaksin. The problems for the monarchists and the army however go beyond the issue of Thaksin. Both of these institutions face storms. First, the death of King Bhumibol will be a huge blow. It is hard to measure how much loyalty is given to the king as an individual who has done much for the nation and how much to the institution of the monarchy as a keystone of Thailand. But it is clear that no one has the standing to fill the king's shoes. As for the army, defending the monarchy against “republican threats” becomes another role. Its budget has been boosted by the Abhisit government but the raison d'être for a large military budget is none too obvious. Indeed, there are concerns that military desires to justify its existence lie behind contrived border spats with Cambodia and stand in the way of any attempt to resolve the problems of a Muslim insurgency in the south by offering the provinces a degree of autonomy. In the short run the situation in the south may have improved slightly but the problem will linger. But the army itself is not free of factions, nor are the courtiers who surround the monarchy. The monarchists need a credible monarch. Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn, who spends much of his time in Germany, and also may not be fully fit, may lack the popularity accorded to his father and sister Princess Maha Chakri Sirindhorn. But no one doubts his determination to succeed his father. Nor is there any obvious way, short of death, that he won't achieve that goal, however much some close to the palace might like to see Sirindhorn succeed or become Regent till the Crown Prince's male heir reaches maturity. He was anointed as heir back in 1972 when he was 20. Will the successor need to do some political deals of his own to protect his back? And if so, which side will Thaksin be on? Beyond the issue of Thaksin and the politics of patronage are real issues of income distribution and the metropolitan/rural divide. Income distribution may not have been getting any worse in recent years, but the media and the declining supply of cheap rural labor have all helped raise political awareness. Thaksin's populist policies, with handouts to farmers and cheap health care, were nothing very radical. Certainly they did not risk – as the pampered Bangkok middle class claims – massive wealth redistribution or a dangerous government debt burden. In practice there has been little to choose between macro policies under Thaksin and those of his successors, both military and civilian. Abhisit has even expanded some Thaksin policies to try to win rural support at the next election. But class tensions have increased and among the Red Shirts there are plenty of aspiring radicals who have been demonstrating against the Bangkok-elite system rather than in favor of Thaksin the man. The media may have become generally compliant, almost unanimously pro-establishment and hostile to Thaksin, but non-governmental organizations still flourish. Some critics still brave the lese majeste laws, and long prison terms or voluntary exile to foster anti-monarchy radicalism that is as yet more incipient than real but could develop into a threat if the prestige of the monarchy plummets and democratic aspirations are thwarted by the military. On balance a muddle-through scenario looks more likely as ideological positions yield to the power of money and the cynicism of public and politicians alike. But any forecast may be foolish. * Changed because of an editing error. We apologize.
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(13)
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written by TA , December 01, 2009
There is no freedom in this land, and perhaps, never will...!
Votes: +0
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or Facism
written by Sirikit , November 03, 2009
Or Facism as in the Case of Franco in Spain.
Votes: +1
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Death
written by Sirikit , November 03, 2009
His death may usher in the Age of Republicanism.
Votes: +2
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Such Suspense
written by Tom B. , November 01, 2009
Oh, I so await the implosion of the Thai Society. I was deeply disappointed by the news of the King being released from the hospital. Why doesn't he just die already so the country falls into civil war?
Votes: +1
The outcome of the King's death will certainly result in prolonged Civil War and revolution that will either result in democratic change or a significant step back as a forceful military junta or royal junta (the vile Prince and his thugs) cling to power through violence and intimidation. Either way, the streets in the "Land of Smiles" will run red with the blood of their own people, when this day comes. report abuse
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written by "Life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness" , November 01, 2009
While there is only 1 King in Thailand, there a dozen of Kings in Malaysia-- taking turns every 5 years..
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Les Trois Couleurs
written by Liberty , October 30, 2009
Three colours on a flag should mean liberty, fraternity, and equality.
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Thailand's Political Muddle
written by Adi , October 30, 2009
What Thailand need: "A French Revolution"
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written by Tay Wee Wen , October 30, 2009
Let others worship phallus through annointing the scions of some dead rascal for centuries, I am no fan of monarchy.
Votes: +3
Chakri dynasty is found on top of the worst kind of ruffian. The first Chakri king Buddha Yodfa murdered his father in law King Taksin of Thonburi Dynasty. Now another guy by same name Thaksin may be the catalyst for republicanism. What a retribution. Those who do not believe in Karma better study this fact. The descendence of father in law murderer should be kick out. The murderous Chakri Dynasty should be irrelevant long time ago. We must let natural justice take its course. report abuse
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Behind the veiled curtain
written by Sirikit , October 29, 2009
The future king will be controlled from the veiled curtain with the loyal retainers in control.
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Nepal
written by jimmy , October 29, 2009
Thailand needs to learn from Nepal.
Votes: +7
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written by ta86 , October 28, 2009
yep I agree with the two comments above!
Votes: +1
looks like things aren't going to improve in the mean time soon report abuse
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Some good points
written by Reg , October 28, 2009
There are some good points in the report but one glaring error - SRT unions are close to New Politics, not Peua Thai.
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That's certainly the hope.
written by John Francis Lee , October 28, 2009
'Abhisit makes a more credible leader than most of the alternatives...'
Votes: +14
This is no more than a bald assertion. Abhisit talks and apparently lives in another world, certainly not in this one. Most of his talk has flatly contradicted reality as it was when delivered, or is promptly contradicted by "his" government's actions directly afterwards. I suppose that in a "you gotta believe" Obama, figurehead leader sort of way, he does satisfy those who are well enough off, or think they are, to be able to live in such nebulous rhetorical clouds, but ordinary people find Abhisit laughable on the surface, and a truly unfunny joke beneath. ' As for the army, defending the monarchy against “republican threats” becomes another role. Its budget has been boosted by the Abhisit government but the raison d'être for a large military budget is none too obvious. ' The army of course is the real power behind Abhisit's government and they will continue to use him as their figurehead for as long as possible. He plays well abroad, and in Bangkok. The army are certainly among those utterly unaffected by whatever passes the lips of Abhisit. Most of his rhetoric is expended claiming that night is in fact day, but the generals were born at night and feel quite comfortable in the dark. ' But class tensions have increased and among the Red Shirts there are plenty of aspiring radicals who have been demonstrating against the Bangkok-elite system rather than in favour of Thaksin the man. ' That's certainly the hope. Hope that there will be elections long before "late 2011" and that a good-sized group of "aspiring radicals" will be elected. report abuse
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