 Historic realignment of political blocs starts to appear a real possibility
On Nov. 23, after months of delays, a High Court in Kuala Lumpur is
expected to hear yet another appeal from Malaysian opposition leader
Anwar Ibrahim against trial on charges that he had sex with a
24-year-old male aide, Mohd Saiful Bukhari Azlan.
Partly
because of Anwar's troubles, not the least of them the charges, which
have been hanging over his head since June of 2008, and for several
other reasons, it is beginning to appear as if Malaysia is undergoing a
historic political realignment.
Political observers in Kuala
Lumpur say the sodomy charges, viewed by many as manufactured to
destroy Anwar's political career, are leaving Anwar's own Parti
Keadilan Rakyat distracted and rudderless. The heady days of March
2008, when the three-party coalition wrested five states from the
Barisan Nasional and broke its 50-year hold on a two-thirds majority in
Parliament, are in the past.
The opposition coalition is being
harried on all sides by the Barisan and suffering from internal
conflicts that have weakened it considerably. In addition, possibly
because he is distracted by the trial, the sources say, Anwar, a
charismatic speaker, has not been a particularly effective leader.
As
a result, the leadership of the opposition is passing from Anwar's
Parti Keadilan to Parti Islam se-Malaysia, the fundamentalist Islamic
party with its roots in the rural, poor northeast of the country. It is
PAS, as the party is known, that has the political infrastructure,
manpower and stamina for the long haul.
Many Keadilan members,
one analyst says, came from the dominant United Malays National
Organisation, the biggest ethnic party in the ruling national
coalition, and they are susceptible to returning to it if they don't
see the opportunity for Keadilan to take over to rule the country. And
that hope appears to have gone glimmering after Anwar had promised to
take over more than a year ago and failed.
In the meantime PAS
has moved shrewdly to consolidate its growing power in urban areas,
particularly the Selangor area surrounding the capital of Kuala Lumpur.
Many ethnic Malays, turned off by the continuing money politics and
corruption in Umno, are turning to the fundamentalist party, and a
surprising number of other ethnic minorities as well.
"PAS
will continue to gain momentum. Malays who have switched over moral
issues will not return to Umno," said a lawyer with close ties to Umno.
But while PAS is seeking to project a more moderate image in the urban
areas, the party is quite proud of the conservative changes it has made
in the nearly two decades since it took over Kelantan state in 1990.
Gambling outlets and pawnshops have been closed, unisex barbershops are
closely monitored and Muslim women are required to wear headscarves.
So-called
khalwat (close proximity) police roam the streets seeking to make sure
boys and girls don't do what comes naturally to most boys and girls.
Those restrictions are starting to be felt in Selangor as well.
Religious police have raided nightclubs where ethnic Malay men and
women have been found to be drinking, there have been attempts to stop
beer sales in ethnic Malay areas and imams and bilals (muezzins) have
been given the power to police dress and behavior.
Despite
earlier flirtation by PAS president Hadi Awang and his supporters to
consider joining Umno in an ethnic Malay-dominant PAS will choose to
remain in the Pakatan Rakyat coalition, given that it gives the Islamic
party the best chance to take power at a federal level despite the
earlier flirtation by PAS president Hadi Awang and his supporters to
possibly join Umno in an ethnic Malay-dominant coalition. With no
business interests, in contrast to UMNO, PAS isn't interested in
prolonging the country's New Economic Policy, an affirmative action
program for the country's dominant ethnic Malays, who make up 60
percent of the population, according to an analyst for a Kuala Lumpur
think tank
"Pas doesn't mind conceding to the Chinese community
the entrenchment and growth of Chinese schools, since this doesn't
conflict with PAS' goal of imposing shariah (Islamic religious) law,"
the analyst said. "PAS has continually said shariah law won't apply to
non-Muslims, pointing to their governance in Kelantan. But what a lot
of Chinese forget is that because PAS doesn't have power at the federal
level, it cannot impose shariah law. Who knows what PAS will do if it
gets the opportunity to impose shariah law throughout the country. Will
they exempt non-Muslims from Shariah law? I doubt it."
Pakatan
can't be counted out, despite the disarray manifested in the East
Malaysia state of Sabah, where Keadilan leaders recently resigned their
party positions in a huff over what they regarded as mismanagement and
drift, and the mess in Perak state, where Umno leaders induced several
opposition members to change sides, taking the state back into the
Barisan camp.
Neither PAS nor the Democratic Action Party, the
ethnic Chinese leg of the opposition coalition, intends to let the
coalition fail. The DAP, a cadre-based party with considerably more
discipline than Parti Keadilan, has continued to gain membership at the
expense of the Malaysian Chinese Association, the second biggest ethnic
party in the Barisan, which is mired in one of the biggest scandals in
the country's history over a plan to build a multimodal port system in
Port Klang west of Kuala Lumpur. Party infighting has rendered the
party nearly moribund.
"PAS as the leader of Pakatan will pose a
far more formidable challenge to Umno than Anwar's party ever did," the
think-tank analyst said. "For one thing, there are no corruption
charges against PAS; their members can't be persuaded to defect to Umno
and PAS credibility with Chinese community is far better than that of
Umno." In fact, the analyst added, PAS now has more non-Muslims in its
support group than the DAP has members.
In the meantime, the
Barisan Nasional, revitalized to some extent by a newly recovering
economy and more dynamic leadership on the part of Prime Minister Najib
Tun Razak despite his own scandal-plagued background, is making
dramatic changes of its own – basically deciding to go its own way
without the support of its flailing and scandal-plagued minority
parties. Najib is said to be under intense pressure from the rank and
file to consider allotting fewer cabinet posts to the leaders of the
component parties. In the event that some non-Malays are in fact
appointed to the cabinet, some Umno members argue, they may in effect
have very little clout in their own respective communities.
Najib
is also said to be under pressure to not give up seats to
representatives of the other parties in by-elections where ethnic
Malays dominate because of the parties' weakness. In elections in Perak
and Selangor, the sources say, Umno allocated seats to minority parties
only to have them lose the seats to the opposition.
There is a
growing feeling that because of the wreckage of the minority parties,
there is little hope that minority voters will return to the Barisan,
and that it would be wiser to concentrate on trying to pull in the
Malay vote by itself. If that happens – and Najib is said to be
ambivalent at this point, continuing to push his 1Malaysia ethnic
harmony mantra – it would be a breakdown of the historic tripartite
ethnic compact that has ruled the country from its inception.
 |
Subscribe to this comment's feed
Show/Hide comments
Show/Hide comment form
A new report by International Risk says it's a jungle out there
Police hunt for bloggers and others who abuse the late Johor sultan's memory
How can Malaysia move in the 21st Century when there is racial discrimination-Mana Boleh! Everyone knows Corruption and UMNO are one and the same_Malu Lah Najib dengan Rakan2 Corrupted!