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Southern Thailand's Intractable Problems |
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Written by Our Correspondent
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Friday, 11 December 2009 |
 Car bomb in Narahiwat Jan 2, 2009
The December 9 meeting of Thai and Malaysian prime ministers in the
troubled southern Thailand province of Narathiwat looks on the face of
it like one filled with symbolic meaning. It contained a degree of risk
for both Abhisit Vejjajiva and Najib Razak. But it could also been seen
as gesture politics on both sides which will do nothing to further the
cause of peace in the three Muslim-Malay majority provinces, Yala,
Narathiwat and Pattani.
For Thailand's Abhisit it provided a
means of showing that he was at least trying to make progress on the
issue, in contrast not only to the disastrous southern policy pursued
by Thaksin Shinawatra. A meeting with Najib in the south also gives the
impression that Malaysia is in earnest about not allowing Pattani
separatist sympathizers on the Malaysian side aiding the bomb planters
and slogan painters in the three southern provinces. It may also be
aimed to please the southern voters who mostly support Abhsit's
Democrat Party. He called for a political solution while rejecting
dialogue with the rebels.
As for Najib, it gave him a chance to
look statesmanlike, deliver a message to PAS-run Kelantan not tolerate
cross-border trouble makers and reaffirm Malaysia's acceptance of Thai
sovereignty over a region which has wanted to be joined to (then
British-ruled Malaya) for a century100. That would play well with
non-Malays and underline UMNO's self-image as a moderate, responsible
force for domestic progress and regional cooperation. But at the same
time Najib could make it clear to Abhisit that without more serious
political effort on the Thai side, the problem would at best fester and
could get worse. To some Malays at least it would seem that Najib is
showing some concern for cousins across the border.
Perhaps not
coincidentally the International Crisis Group came out on December 8
with a report criticizing the Thais for lack of any initiatives to
address the discontents of the Malay-Muslim majority in the provinces.
It noted that government in the region was more in the hands of the
military than the civil administration and the army had resisted
attempts by Abhisit's government to reduce its role.
The fact
is however that much as Abhisit may personally favor attempts to reach
out and engage the rebels – whoever their leaders may be – his
government is too weak and itself too reliant on military backing to do
so, or even to propose any real political steps to accommodate the
aspirations of the majority in the provinces.
The military
anyway believes that its efforts since Thaksin's overthrow have
improved the security situation. For them tough security measures plus
some more cooperation from Malaysia, not political compromises, are the
answer.
The Crisis Group report acknowledges that "military
sweeps" since 2007 had curtailed violence but also claims that the
insurgency has "proved resistant to military suppression". It even says
that a huge development budget which is supposed to help tackle the
problem may have made things worse by engendering corruption while
providing an excuse for avoiding addressing the political issues.
It
urges an end to martial law in the area, disbandment of Buddhist
"self-defense" groups, better control of weapons held by "self-defense
civilians" and investigation of past abuses against Malay-Muslims.
Although
acceptance of some measure of autonomy, like Aceh, or even Malaysia's
Sabah and Sarawak, may seem to non-Thais an obvious potential solution,
it remains anathema to much of the Thai military and senior bureaucracy
for whom there can be no retreat from the notion of a centralized,
monarchist and predominantly Buddhist-guided state.
In any
event, though a running sore, the situation in the south is a minor, if
embarrassing, issue for a Bangkok focused on red/yellow shirt divides
and the monarch-succession watch. So whether empty gesture or serious
attempt to push for peace, the Najib-Abhisit meeting seems unlikely to
lead to substantive progress.
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