 Don't Cry for Me, Indonesia
It may seem a bit early given that elections are three years away, but
Jakarta's political circles are beginning to buzz with reports that
Kristiani Herawati, the wife of President Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono,
plans to run for president when his second term expires in 2014. The
whole thing, pundits and insiders say, is about building a Yudhoyono
dynasty.
Mrs Yudhoyono, known universally as Ibu Ani, is the
daughter and eldest child of the late Gen. Sarwo Edhie Wibowo, who
played a key role in the events of 1965 in which the late strongman
Suharto took advantage of a failed coup to elevate himself into power
over founding president Sukarno. Initially a close ally of Suharto who
also played a role in the bloody purge of Indonesian communists in
1965-66, Sarwo Edhie was said to have been pushed aside in 1970 after he
reportedly complained about government corruption.
From that
point on, he was given positions that largely kept him outside the
political sphere of the central government. He was appointed Indonesian
Ambassador to South Korea and Inspector General of the Department of
Foreign Affairs from 1978 to 1983.
While it is difficult to pin
down her motivations with any certainty, Ibu Ani is said by palace
observers and others to believe it is her family's turn to rule
Indonesia after the derailing of her father by Suharto.
According
to this line of thinking, Ibu Ani would fill the chair until one of the
couple's two sons, currently too young to go for the top job, are
sufficiently mature to run. That would be in 2019 at the earliest, when
the family's eldest son, Agus, a military officer, would be 40. The
couple's younger son, Edhie, was elected a member of the Democratic
Party's House of Representatives contingent. Both sons reportedly have
political ambitions.
The presidential palace in Jakarta Tuesday
denied suggesting that the first lady is a likely presidential
candidate. The president's spokesman, Julian Pasha, told reporters that
any talk that she would succeed her husband was simply "a discourse,
aspiration or opinion that was privately conveyed."
Nonetheless,
a senior official of the powerful Golkar Party, which is nominally
allied with Yudhoyono currently, said recently, "Ibu Ani is the choice.
She is likely to lead the ticket in 2014." The man said the president's
party simply had no other recognizable leader that could move into the
job. "There is no one else," he said.
A spokesman for the
Democratic Party, which Yudhoyono founded, hinted Monday that Aburizal
Bakrie, the head of Golkar, the scandal-plagued party set up by Suharto,
could be Mrs Yudhoyono's running mate. The idea is that a vice
presidential candidate should be drawn from one of the two or three
biggest political parties to solidify grass roots support. Along with
the Democrats and Golkar, the third is the opposition Indonesian
Democratic Party of Struggle, or PDI-P as it is known by its Indonesian
language initials. The party's leader, Megawati Sukarnoputri, is
regarded largely as a spent force in Indonesian politics and her husband
is said to be eyeing a partnership with the Democrats as a way into
power.
Mrs Yudhoyono would face some stiff competition, although
none of it is arising from the Democratic Party. The party's chairman,
Anas Urbaningrum, is considered too young at age 41, and has little
grassroots support. Dino Patti Djalal, the president's former spokesman,
could be considered a long shot but he too is considered to be young at
45 and is in Washington, DC as ambassador to the US.
Another
candidate is Hatta Rajasa, the head of the National Mandate Party and
coordinating Minister for the Economy in Yudhoyono's cabinet. But Hatta
was pushed aside from being selected as Yudhoyono's vice presidential
candidate in the 2009 national presidential election in favor of
Boediono, a respected banker and technocrat who is not a politician.
Any
suggestion that Bakrie might be a running mate to Ibu Ani seems equally
far fetched. He covets the presidency himself and is now a front runner
of sorts despite the fact that he consistently polls no more than 3 or 4
opercent in opinion surveys given his reputation as bare-fisted
backroom businessman. But while he holds no official role in the
cabinet, in May Bakrie was appointed "managing chairman" of a new
government joint political secretariat — a position he got the day after
his allies in the House succeeded in driving Sri Mulyani Indrawati, the
widely respected former finance minister, out of town.
Persistent
reports, however, have Sri Mulyani plotting a return to Indonesia to
run for President in 2014 as a reform candidate. One suggestion making
the rounds is that Sri Mulyani, who was hounded from office in a nasty
political fight over a bank bailout and is currently a managing director
of the World Bank, would even lead the Democrats. It is tantalizing to
consider but unlikely, given her lack of a popular base beyond
academics, intellectuals and journalists.
Despite Yudhoyono's
reputation as a reformer, Sri Mulyani herself has compared the current
situation in Jakarta to Suharto's crony dictatorship, telling business
leaders last May that "We have learned from the 30-year regime of
President Suharto, where relationships between personal and public
interests were so mixed up. We all knew what occurred during the New
Order era was like a disease. But at that time it was done behind closed
doors. Now it's more sophisticated and the skills of power enable the
decision-making process to be co-opted."
Certainly, despite 12
years of undeniable economic, social and political strides since Suharto
lost power in 1998, the country remains mired in pervasive corruption,
with its political institutions largely undeveloped and its law
enforcement and judicial systems shot through with questionable
practices.
But with today's admirably free press, at least the
coffee shop mutterings and speculation surface for all to hear. Unlike
the days when Gen. Sarwo Edhie and his erstwhile pal Suharto maneuvered
themselves into power through stealth and a bloody purge, Indonesia's
future is discussed and pondered openly, just like in what the country
has become, a democracy.
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