Asia Emerges as Clear Winner in Covid Pandemic
If, of course, a winner is possible
Lining up International Monetary Fund economic data on Asian performance against Covid-19 infection data produces some interesting results. The IMF’s numbers on Gross Domestic Product are rough-and-ready numbers derived from sometimes dodgy data. But they certainly look more founded on agreed principles and decisions than the Covid case, test and death numbers daily cited by much-followed websites such as www.worldometers.com.
The latter are all from official sources but depend heavily on two variables. The first is the number of tests per million performed and cases identified. The second is the definition of cause of death. Some countries seem to like to exaggerate the real impact by ascribing death to Covid-19 when the deceased was 90-years-old, obese, had heart disease and diabetes and would have died with the slightest added infection. Elsewhere people may die without being tested, or death attributed to a regular killer such as pneumonia or seasonal flu.
Figures from adjoining countries in Europe with very similar age structures, medical systems, etc. vary so widely as to show up the inconsistencies without being able to explain them.
All that being said, there is some value in looking at the crude data relative to economic performance. The clear winner in Asia is Bangladesh with GDP growth this year forecast at 3.8 percent, clearly less than its normal 6 percent but quite remarkable in the face of the damage to export performance and remittances. It has had Covid-related restrictions but not the lockdown seen in the Philippines.