Beijing Ratchets Up Pressure on Taipei
China may be pushing Taiwan military to fire the first shot
By: Jens Kastner
As relations continue to worsen between Taipei and Beijing, the Chinese Liberation Army air force is attempting to goad Taiwan fighters into firing the first shot. But as the ever-greater number of Chinese jets intrude into Taiwan’s airspace, the island risks being branded the aggressor by China’s spin doctors if they react, according to one of the world’s most renowned China-watchers.
That in turn would reduce the likelihood of other countries coming to Taiwan’s defense, the common assumption being that the Taiwanese military alone would only manage to withstand an attack by the far-larger PLA for days rather than weeks.
The unsettling warning by Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University of London, comes after dozens-strong waves of Chinese military aircraft on multiple occasions breached Taiwan’s air defense identification zone (AIDZ) after mid-September, as well as the median line of the Taiwan Strait.
The median line has been tacitly recognized by Beijing for decades, while AIDZ breaches previously occurred only briefly by single PLA aircraft or pairs. But now Beijing, which is growing more aggressive across the entire region, is increasing the pressure on Taiwan, which it regards as a renegade province.