Chaos Persists Among Chinese Top Brass, Analysts say
Investigation indicates divisions within top military leadership close to Xi
Deep turmoil is continuing among elite military officials close to Chinese President Xi Jinping, with Admiral Miao Hua, the seventh Central Military Commission (CMC) member to be purged since Xi assumed power in 2012, according to a wide assortment of defense analysts, an indication of Xi’s growing frustration with cleaning up the ranks. The turmoil first surfaced months ago with the purging of successive defense ministers amid indications of a huge scandal in the ministry that has likely crippled Beijing’s ambitions to invade Taiwan or go to war with the US and the Philippines, at least in the near term, the analysts say.
Miao was dismissed from his posts and placed under investigation and Defense Minister Dong Jun, also an admiral, is said to have a strong chance of being taken down as well, an indication of the chaos within the CMC, which consists of a handful of the highest commanders of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Xi is the chairman of the CMC, followed by two vice chairmen, General Zhang Youxia and He Weidong. Prior to his downfall, Miao headed the CMC’s Political Work Department. On November 28, the Chinese Ministry of Defense announced that he had been dismissed and placed under investigation.
At least 12 Chinese generals and admirals are Miao associates, according to the Cercius Group, a Canada-based geopolitical consulting firm, all of whom potentially face issues as the Miao case unfolds, a Cercius analyst told Asia Sentinel. They include Dong, the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) commander Hu Zhongming and People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Rocket Force Commander Wang Houbin.
“What is so extraordinary about this is that Miao Hua was handpicked by Xi a decade ago to be a PLA leader,” Dennis Wilder, professor of Asian studies at Georgetown University, tweeted on November 28. “He helicoptered him to the top, having known him ever since Fujian Province days. To publicly humiliate the man, rather than retire him quietly, shows Xi must be extremely angry with the PLA.”
The Miao Hua purge is a much bigger deal than that of Dong Jun, tweeted Neil Thomas, an Asia Society Fellow, on November 28. “Miao is on Xi’s Central Military Commission, unlike Dong. Miao also worked in Fujian when Xi was a local leader there, suggesting that Xi is concerned enough about PLA corruption to take down people he may know well.”
“Indicting Miao involves calling into question a long list of promotions and evaluations that have taken place since 2017. In this sense, many are right to thinking that Miao's affair could spill over and take Dong Jun down,” said a recent Cercius Group French-language working document. The CMC Political Work Department acts as a form of organizational department within the PLA, so most newly appointed generals and admirals need Miao’s approval or recommendation to be promoted, said a Cercius Group report in August. That is likely how defense minister Dong, navy commander Hu Zhongmi and rocket force commander Wang Houbin got their more recent jobs, the report said.
Miao seems to have risen at the expense of Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, the two vice chairmen of the CMC, said the Cercius Group report. Dong’s promotion is largely due to Miao, according to the group’s French-language working document. “It is very likely that the appointment of Dong Jun, who caused the ire of Zhang Youxia and He Weidong, was the straw that broke the camel’s back. It is precisely these tensions between Zhang, He and Miao – and Xi – which partly explain why Dong, in office for almost a year, is still not a member of the CMC, or even a State Councillor.”
For decades it has been the tradition in China for the defense minister to be made a state councillor and be included in the CMC, Willy Lam, senior fellow of the Jamestown Foundation, a US think tank, told Asia Sentinel.
Lyle Morris, a senior fellow of the Asia Society Policy Institute, tweeted on November 29, “Since the six-member CMC was announced at the 20th Party Congress in October 2022, two have been placed under investigation: Li Shangfu and Miao Hua. This alone constitutes a major failure for Xi's most trusted PLA leaders, who are thoroughly vetted beforehand. Quietly, over the past two years, Xi Jinping has launched one of the largest purges of senior leaders in the PLA in recent memory, removing at least 14 senior military leaders. The target of the purge appears to be China’s rocket and equipment development forces, but now also appears to be targeting the PLA Navy.”
These include the most recent three ministers of defense – Wei Fenghe, Li Shangfu, and Dong Jun, as well as Li Yuchao and Xu Zhongbo – the commander and political commissar of the rocket force respectively, former rocket force commander Zhou Yaning, and General Ding Laihang, the former Commander of the PLA Air Force, Morris pointed out. On June 27, Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe were expelled from the Chinese Communist Party and face prosecution, Asia Sentinel reported on June 29.
“Taken together, this is by far the largest shake-up of PLA leadership and SOEs (state-owned enterprises) involved in military procurement in recent memory. It suggests deep anxiety and disfunction within the ranks of China’s military, and a failure of trust between Xi and the military,” Morris tweeted. “In other words, corruption in China’s military is not a case of a “few bad apples.” It is part of “doing business” in the PLA to a much greater extent than most other military organizations around the world, where the rule of law and checks and balances can serve to expose major acts of nepotism and corruption.”
Chinese defense minister
On November 27, the Financial Times reported that Dong was under investigation for alleged corruption, citing unnamed current and former US officials. The following day, a Ministry of Defense spokesperson dismissed the Financial Times story as “pure fabrication.” On December 5, in a signal that Dong was apparently not under investigation, the ministry announced that he had chaired a security conference in Shanghai that day.
But “Dong Jun was promoted by Miao Hua. Of course he is in deep trouble,” said Lam. “Xi’s control over the top brass is in disarray. First, he moved against his own proteges in the equipment procurement-rocket forces faction including the two former defense ministers Li Shangfu and Wei Fenghe, then he is moving against a faction in the PLA. All those who were ousted used to be Xi’s proteges. Which adds up to Xi can trust nobody but his wife,” he added.
“If Xi doesn’t trust his military leadership, he is less likely to launch complex new campaigns, such as against Taiwan,” Thomas tweeted on November 28.