China’s Copycat Fighter: Arms Sales Bait
It isn’t as good, but it’s good enough to cut into US arms sales
By: Andy Wong Ming Jun
The true value of China’s newest J-35 stealth fighter lies not in its intent to match US stealth fighter technological prowess by any means possible, but in its value in the global arms export market for countries that seek stealth fighter technology that is “good enough” and cheap enough to buy without political strings as onerous as the gold-plated US F-35 Lightning II. With the future of air combat increasingly emphasizing stealth in substantial numbers, be it with manned aircraft or unmanned drones, the mockery of the J-35 as a “Temu/Aliexpress F-35” as a cheap, mass-produced Chinese copy of a technologically superior American aircraft might very well turn out to be its biggest selling point and threat to US global airpower superiority, with the potential to influence future shifts in military alignment away from the US if erstwhile US allies choose to switch over to China for their source of air power.
On November 12, China unveiled the J-35 at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow with both static display models of its land and carrier-based variants as well as a flying demonstration of its land-based “A” model. Despite extremely limited public information released about specifications and operational parameters, rendering it a “black box” to public observers and military analysts, the front-and-center feature of the J-35 has been widely perceived as a clear statement of intent by China to not just challenge US stealth superiority over the Asia-Pacific, especially with regards to Taiwan, but also of US clout in the global airpower arms market.
Much reaction towards the J-35, particularly among US-oriented military analyst circles, has focused on its external similarity to the US’s Lightning II as evidence of Chinese subterfuge and espionage in stealing classified US data in its pursuit of military parity with US stealth capabilities. Certainly, there is an element of truth to this, given the August 2014 indictment of a Chinese national by the name of Su Bin for conspiring with Chinese intelligence to hack into US defense contractors’ systems to steal classified data including those pertaining to the US F-22 Raptor and F-35 Lightning II stealth fighter programs.
However, it is also important to note that the cosmetic surface similarities between the two doesn’t indicate that China has managed to copy like-for-like in their attempts at matching US capabilities. The fact that China’s J-35 is still a twin-engine fighter as opposed to the single-engine F-35 is indicative that China still lags behind the US in terms of engine and metallurgical technology, both of which are bedrock factors in determining any aircraft’s capabilities. It is well-established since China’s first stealth fighter program (the Chengdu J-20) that it has significant issues both with weaning itself off Russian-made jet engines as well as developing its domestic jet engines that can come close to matching American ones or Chinese strategic ambitions in the Pacific. US news that the full capabilities of the F-35 are limited by the slow rollout of its “Technology Refresh 3” software upgrade also demonstrates how the true essence of any future generation fighter jet lies not in its hardware body but within its software datalinks allowing for true collaborative networked warfare in the skies.
The true significance of China’s new J-35 stealth fighter lies in its geopolitical value as a potential cornerstone of China’s growing clout in the global arms market, challenging longstanding US dominance, particularly in the realm of fighter aircraft sales. US global hegemony is secured heavily on the meticulously and jealously hoarded dependence on American weapons it cultivates in its allies’ militaries. It is no coincidence that the dominance of airpower, precision, and the obsession with stealth pioneered as the “American Way Of War” continuing to hold sway globally is underpinned by the fact that over 1,000 F-35s are currently in service worldwide with an estimated 3000 to be produced over the coming decades to replace the F-16 Fighting Falcon, another American fourth-generation multirole fighter jet with over 2,000 still in service.
American habits of attaching political terms and conditions to selling or technology assistance with advanced weapons systems have resulted in rifts with important allied powers that have been key to US global power hegemony. For instance, during the 1980s Japan’s development of its indigenous F-2 fighter was marred by long-running controversy due to US efforts to strongarm itself into the program out of fears Japan could wean itself off its dependence on US fighter jets. In the end, Japan and the US agreed to develop the F-2 as a joint venture but with terms heavily skewed in favor of the US: Japan would have limited access to flight control and weapons control software for the new aircraft, while the US would not only have free access to any new technology developed for the project by Japan but also produce a guaranteed 40 percent of the hardware for the new F-2.
More recently, the US refused to sell its F-35 to Turkey despite it being a key NATO ally and joint development partner for the fighter jet over Turkey’s decision to buy Russia’s S-400 air defense system in 2019. More damagingly, the US scuppered loans for Pakistan (a country that has played a key role in facilitating US presence in Central Asia and Afghanistan for decades) to buy new F-16s back in 2016 directly, which led to Pakistan choosing to purchase Chinese warplanes instead. Pakistan announced in December 2021 that it would be buying 25 Chinese J-10 multirole fighters with options for almost a dozen more, followed up in January 2024 by an announcement of intent to purchase China’s FC-31 stealth fighter.
This decision to buy the FC-31 stealth fighter is especially significant as it is the export variant of the J-35 unveiled at Zhuhai this month. In effect, Pakistan is subsidizing China’s J-35 development aimed specifically at producing a domestic counter to the US F-35 while still remaining a key US ally. China’s message to the world and the US in particular with the unveiling of a working, flying J-35 at Zhuhai is loud and clear: China is now an indiscriminate, cost-effective provider of stealth fighter jets with the potential for at least a substantial percentage of comparable performance to US offerings in the global arms market. When contrasted with longstanding delays in US F-35 production particularly in meeting foreign demand, the geopolitical leverage this grants to China in its worldwide great power competition against the US should not be underestimated.
Andy Wong Ming Jun holds a Masters in International Security from the University of Bath and specializes in defense issues