China Raises Stakes in Pacific Arms Race
New 6th-gen warplanes, amphibious assault ship unveiled
By: Andy Wong Ming Jun
China has sent shockwaves throughout the halls of power in the Asia Pacific, particularly in the US by unveiling a triple whammy of advanced new weaponry aimed explicitly at tipping the balance of power in the region. Over two days from December 26 to 27, two new warplane designs were spotted in what appears to be deliberately ambiguous test flights over urban areas in China’s Sichuan and Liaoning provinces alongside the launch of China’s largest-yet amphibious assault warship in Shanghai.
In the Chinese spirit of commemorating significant political anniversaries of the ruling Communist Party, it appears that all three new military platforms were unveiled to coincide with the PRC’s founder, Chairman Mao Zedong’s 131st birth anniversary. The nature of these specific warplanes and warship’s first unveiling to the public is also directly pointed, signaling Chinese intent in matching, challenging and ultimately surpassing US capabilities in the global sixth-generation fighter jet arms race as well as the US’s aging amphibious assault flotilla.
First spotted by the public in Chengdu and Shenyang, the novel warplanes were heavily speculated to represent China’s breakthrough in researching and developing the world’s first sixth-generation fighter jet from two of its leading military aircraft manufacturers. This is in no small effect due to what many military observers initially perceived to be more than cosmetic similarities in structural shape between the new warplanes and various conceptual designs for the Next-Generation Air Dominance (NGAD) sixth-generation fighter jet program first unveiled by the US Air Force 2014.
The specter of Chinese technological and military espionage efforts enabling it to steal a march on US military capabilities has been a persistent presence in Western military and political circles, especially since the recent unveiling of the Chinese J-35 stealth fighter at the 2024 Zhuhai Airshow showed off a working, flying warplane conveniently similar in design and size to the US F-35 Lightning II which was targeted by successful Chinese spying efforts in 2007.
However, some defense analysts have been careful against jumping to conclusions about the two latest Chinese craft being either sixth-generation fighter jets or having been developed via espionage efforts against the US or other major powers. China’s past history of reverse-engineering imported weapons platforms including warplanes and helicopters doesn’t preclude the possibility that the tailless flying wing and cranked arrow designs were independently decided upon by Chinese aircraft designers out of a sense of technological solution convergence thanks to requirement factors such as the pursuit of stealth, long ranges, and substantial payload capacities comparable with other similar Western programs.
Current analysis of the Chengdu test warplane in particular increasingly leans towards it being the JH-XX, one of two Chinese stealth bomber programs first disclosed by US intelligence in January 2019. Besides its stealth-focused overall shape being that of a tailless flying wing with no vertical control surfaces allowing for as small a radar cross-section as possible, the Chengdu test warplane is observed to be of very similar size as its chase plane counterpart, China’s first stealth fighter jet the J-20 Mighty Dragon estimated at being 21.3 meters long (2.13 meters longer than the venerable American F-14 Tomcat, the largest ever fighter jet put to sea).
Combined with the fact that it has been observed with twin-wheeled main landing gear akin to the Russian Su-34 Fullback fighter-bomber and inlets for three engines mounted in a trijet configuration, senior defense analyst Justin Bronk at the Royal United Services Institute in the UK speculated the Chengdu test plane is China’s newest “regional bomber.” If true, such an aircraft could pose a serious threat to Taiwan’s air defense system, giving China the ability for precision airstrikes on Taiwanese key installations from unexpected directions with manned, recallable platforms instead of relying on easily-predictable, irreversibly escalatory ballistic missiles fired out of the mainland coast from west to east.
There is yet no official statement or confirmation regarding the test flights. The lack of censorship on the Chinese national intranet of the flights however hints at a nudge-nudge, wink-wink unveiling, sowing widespread speculation globally with more than a hint of “Chinese Whispers” hyperbole that serves propaganda objectives in aggrandizing its military power against its primary peer adversary, the US. However, level heads within defense circles caution against jumping to conclusions while still recognizing China’s very real military technological advancements.
According to senior defense analyst Euan Graham, the new designs showcase China’s willingness to experiment and innovate while building on existing knowledge, and hence there should be no “lingering complacency that the U.S. and its allies always set the pace.” That is a view shared by former US Air Force Air Combat Command head, General Mark Kelly, who in 2022 openly warned that not only was China on track in developing sixth-generation fighter jets but that they were “not having a debate over the relevance of six-gen air dominance.” Indeed, in July the US NGAD program was officially indefinitely paused by US Air Force Secretary Frank Kendall pending urgent reassessments of relevant requirements impacted significantly by changing global strategic situations, unexpected key technological developments, and significant projected cost overruns.
Another fact not up for debate is China’s increasingly sophisticated and accomplished naval buildup, signified by the launch of its latest Type 076 “Sichuan” amphibious assault ship from the Shanghai Hudong-Zhonghua shipyard. With its displacement described by Chinese state media as 40,000 tonnes and equipped with an electromagnetic catapult similar to that on China’s first fully-fledged flattop carrier the Type 003 “Fujian,” the Type 076 class is one of the largest Chinese warships constructed by a Chinese shipyard claiming itself to be the “Cradle of Chinese Frigates and Landing Ships” and seen as China’s answer to the American Wasp and America-class warships so integral to US amphibious and littoral power projection in the Pacific.
The US currently has only nine such warships in service after the scrapping of USS Bonhomme Richard in 2021 after a disastrous fire, and is set to enter 2025 with only seven available for active service and the two oldest ones (USS Wasp and USS Bataan) entering two-year refit periods. With American shipyards strained to the extent that the US can’t fully maintain or repair its existing inventory of warships let alone build new ones, China’s latest launch along with its new warplane designs serve as a pointed signal to the world, indicating that its intention to achieve the reunification of Taiwan by force and displace American military supremacy in the Western Pacific remains unabated.
Interesting piece. Since the ride and rise of China in economic terms, attention has turned more and more to China's geopolitical or geostrategic ambitions, more in the South China Sea than elsewhere. But even in the case of elsewhere, where Chinese money has flowed either in terms of foreign investment or delt-laden loans, say to as far as Africa or South America, and more and more to countries geographically closer to China, and indeed even China's space ambitions, the inevitable questions that arise are when is the next big war; i.e. Third World War, and will it be between the US (and its allies) and China (and its allies)? And what form will it take -- a conventional war or a technological-nuclear war? Both are valid questions. But the answers one gets are less than convincing that an all-out war will happen on the scale of a third world war. Just as I doubt a nuclear war will break out.
I am reminded of the days when we were students of detente. Detente took three forms: (a) political/diplomatic with ideological battles in the background including proxy wars; (b) posturing but not much else; and (c) the mutually-assured destruction doctrine that has, and continues to prevent a nuclear war. In all of the world's theatres where wars have broken out, especially in the Middle East, where certain states are nuclear armed and others have tried to develop their nuclear capability despite not possessing that capacity unless it is surreptitiously provided by nuclear-armed states like Russia, Iran, North Korea, Pakistan and China, a nuclear war isn't, to my mind, a probability. It remains only a possibility on the basis that only certain countries have the capability or the capacity but even here there is no equalization of capability, capacity or the will. That's not to say military strategists do not calculate scenarios every day of not just how to fight a new high-tech war, and one that include chemical-biological weaponry, but also calculating how they might prevent one.
And arms race isn't anything new. Seriously. So what might China's two planes and aircraft carrier suggest in terms of regional/global strategy and war strategy? Just that -- posturing. And a little bit of what is called sabre-rattling. As the article suggests, China is trying to "teach" Taiwan -- a sovereign, independent state -- that China's old threat of re-unification by force if necessary is no laughing matter. And it isn't. But sure even China would be calculating how much destruction from such a disastrous and complete dumb move it is prepared to sacrifice of Chinese lives and property should that war eventuate, and will Chinese people forgive emperor Xi Jinping, who is already on the nose of many civilians, thanks to his outstanding inability to revive China from its four-year structural economic doldrums.
So far as I am concerned, Xi play toys, while real, are simply to show the Taiwanese, the West (particularly the US), the Japanese, the South Koreans and the Southeast Asians that China has come of age in military terms but its belligerence on using force is merely that of a China bully. Even Xi knows that ramming a US naval ship is not the same as ramming a Philippines coastguard vessel let alone a Philippines fishing boat. Even threatening US jetfighters flying in international airspace is by and large "restrained", raising only complaints, if anybody is listening. But the arms race will continue until such time as the US's military industrial complex's capacity to develop new war toys is enhanced, although US government debt and fiscal deficit are hampeing that capacity development. Likewise, at some point, whilst it might develop its own (indigenous) technological knowhow for its military muscle, cannot continue as if the economy is plucking 10% GDP growth of the yesteryears.
The US is in relative decline. No question about this. And China might already be heading that way. It can print all the yuan it wants to develop its military needs but to use it will be costly to China in more ways than one. There is something called "opportunity costs" in the realm of economics that even China cannot escape. All it can do is what it is doing now -- stealing or borrowing technological sophistication for military development and heavy-handed bullyboy posturing, almost as if Xi, bedevilled at home for his one-man dictatorship, is trying to shore up his popularity and political legitimacy at home at a time when Chinese nationalism, as fake as it is, is dwindling while the economy suffers.