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Andy Wong's avatar

Interesting if true, but if a blockade against Taiwan's seaborne energy shipments were to be actually put into action it would almost definitely trigger political and military reactions from Japan and South Korea, both of which are also heavily if not exclusively reliant on seaborne energy shipment routes and tankers that also travel the same route which services/goes past Taiwan.

The perfect excuse for neutrality patrols by the JMSDF/ROKN/USN if you ask me, and the absolute last thing China and the PLA/PLAN wants if they actually intend to attempt an amphibious invasion of Taiwan: lots and lots of foreign grey-hulled naval warships around the Taiwan Straits and the South China Sea.

Should Taiwan be worried? Absolutely, but no more or less so than South Korea, Japan, and even China (because much as China has tried to build up overland pipeline routes to make up the majority of its energy imports and negate the significance of a US blockade of the Malacca Straits against Chinese seaborne trade/energy shipping, they're not there yet).

Another point of note is that most of these LNG carriers like all other commercial cargo vessels today are sailing under flags of convenience, registered officially under the jurisdictions of mostly Global South/developing countries like Panama and the Marshall Islands etc. All it takes is China damaging or even sinking one such vessel by accident/on purpose, and they can immediately kiss goodbye to a big chunk of goodwill it has painstakingly built up with the Global South and damage significantly any hopes they have of fragmenting international opinion at the UN towards any attempts at invading and conquering Taiwan.

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