Concerns Rise for Indonesian Democracy in New Government

Prabowo seeking to consolidate power via overwhelming coalition, critics say

Prabowo displays his voting fingers. Photo from Getty Images

The two parties that supported former Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan in Indonesia’s February 14 general election are expected to join the government under Prabowo Subianto, who is to take office as Indonesia’s president in October, raising concerns that Prabowo is seeking to build a national coalition so big it is unassailable by a legislative opposition and nullifying the necessary checks and balances of democracy, critics say.

That was a strategy practiced by his predecessor and ally, President Joko Widodo, who leaves office in October after Indonesia’s extended presidential interregnum. As a result, the country’s democracy index continues to decline from year to year. In 2020, the country recorded its lowest score in the past 11 years according to the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU).

The two supporting Anies are the National Awakening Party (PKB) and the National Democratic Party (NasDem). NasDem chairman Surya Paloh has agreed to become part of the government, while PKB is awaiting an offer from Prabowo and his team, party officials say. Immediately after being officially declared the winner of the election in April, Prabowo met with both to assess their willingness to join.

Prabowo, a one-time general and commander of Indonesia’s Special Forces and now defense minister, won a landslide victory with 58.6 percent of the vote in the 2024 presidential election, taking Jokowi's son, Gibran Rakabuming, as his running mate and overpowering his opponents to eliminate the need for a second round of voting. That has soured relations between Jokowi and his party, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P), which he abandoned in the February national polls, The PDIP subsequently picked the former governor of Central Java, Ganjar Pranowo. Voters, whose numbers were swelled by the young who had no memory of previous events, ignored charges that Prabowo had committed human rights violations during the final days of the New Order government of the strongman Suharto, whose daughter he married and subsequently divorced.

At least nine parties are already in in the ranks of Prabowo's government coalition, including four parliamentary parties (Gerindra, Golkar, PAN, and Democrat), and five which are not, PBB, PSI, Gelora, Garuda, and Prima. If PKB and NasDem join forces, the government coalition will be even more dominant with a total of 417 seats in the House of Representatives, leaving only PDI-P and the Prosperous Justice Party (PKS) in opposition with 163. Many are afraid that without a strong opposition force, opposing voices to government policies will be steamrollered.

Prabowo appears set to follow Jokowi's blueprint, stabilizing his two five-year terms in government by accommodating as many parties as possible, rewarding them with cabinet positions in ministries and other strategic government institutions. In the first period of his government, Jokowi left only Gerindra and PKS in opposition, with only PKS consistent in opposition in his second term. Government policies were formulated almost without parliamentary resistance from parliament, even controversial ones such as the revision of the new Corruption Eradication Commission (KPK) Law —which many emasculated as what had been among Asia’s strongest corruption watchdogs. The controversial Job Creation Bill was drafted and ratified almost without public participation along with the construction of the new capital of the archipelago, which is struggling and finding difficulty in luring international funding and participants.

The pre-election decision by the Constitutional Court (MK) to change the minimum age limit for presidential and vice-presidential candidates, paving the way for the president's son Gibran as vice president is regarded as full-on abuse of power. The decision was presided over by Jokowi's brother-in-law, Anwar Usman, who was later removed from his position as chief justice of the MK for violating the code of ethics. Even though there is no evidence that the president was involved, the case has sparked public concern that laws and regulations can be tampered with by certain parties for the purposes of power.

In 2020, the country’s government fell to 6.30 in EIU ratings, which range 0-10, the lowest in the past 11 years. The score rose in 2021 to 6.71 but then fell to 6.53 in 2023 and was tabbed a flawed democracy. Indonesia recorded the highest democracy index in 2015 with a score of 7.03. The index is compiled based on five variables – election administration and pluralism, government function, political participation, political culture, and civil liberties. 

Indonesia’s score in Transparency International’s Corruption Perception Index in 2022 was 34, down four points from the previous year, the worst reform achievement since 1998, an indication that attempts to curb corrupt practices is continuing to worsen. Freedom of expression and opinion have also decreased over the past five years according to joint research by the pro-democracy and human rights institution SETARA Institute and the International NGO Forum on Indonesian Development (INFID).

Karyono Wibowo, a researcher for the Indonesian Public Institute (IPI) said a government without an opposition tends to be corrupt and authoritarian. “So an opposition party is needed to act as a balance in the government,” he said, adding that overwhelming majorities also often lead to ineffective and inefficient government. Moreover, if the objective of forming a cabinet is simply to share power, the orientation of national development will shift to fulfilling group interests.

One of the consequences of a fat coalition is the creation of new positions or posts in the government to accommodate parties or volunteers supporting the government, according to Andalas University constitutional law expert Feri Amsari, possibly resulting in budgetary waste. In the Jokowi government, for example, he said, new posts were created such as deputy ministerships. Jokowi, either on his own accord or at the request of supporting parties, also appointed volunteers and people close to him to fill other strategic positions such as commissioners at State-Owned Enterprises and ambassadors.

Prabowo recently suggested creating a community of his residential predecessors Jokowi, Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, and Megawati Sukarnoputri, which the PDIP poured cold water on. The idea imitates the president's club in the United States, a forum for discussion and exchange of ideas between the current president and previous leaders which has almost no effect on government. Critics worry that it would simply become an elite club giving rise to an extraordinary political oligarchy and weakening government oversight mechanisms.

The PDIP, which led the legislative elections with around 103 seats in parliament despite the loss of its presidential candidate, has not yet expressed its stance on becoming the opposition or joining the government. Many hope that PDIP would remain in strong opposition considering the party’s experience in opposition from the New Order era to SBY’s presidency. But if PDIP joins the government, hope for principled opposition would be pinned on independent organizations and civil society to act as a watchdog against moving further away from democratic principles.