The Future of Indonesia Under Prabowo
Investment-friendly, democratic opponents maybe not
By: Ainur Rohmah
For the 72-year-old Prabowo Subianto, who drubbed his two opponents in a February 14 landslide, Indonesia likely gets a stable, pro-investment government with strong nationalist if undemocratic leanings in which Joko Widodo, who leaves office next October with many of his objectives unfulfilled, will likely seek to play a major role. But Prabowo, who has for 40 years sought to be president, is unlikely to slavishly follow his predecessor’s diktats.
Markets rallied and the Indonesian rupiah steadied as Prabowo promised to continue Jokowi's programs such as building the new capital city Nusantara, supporting downstreaming mineral resources, and being pro-foreign investment to boost domestic development. Prabowo also promised to make Indonesia a developed country by 2045, reduce state debt over the next five years, strengthen the military, and provide free lunches and milk in schools. But given his military background and his mercurial personality, there are also widespread concerns over how closely Prabowo will pay attention to democratic principles.
The former son-in-law of the late strongman Suharto, Prabowo thrashed opponents Anies Baswedan and Ganjar Pranowo, based on the results of the quick count by independent pollsters. Unofficial figures show the former general took 55.97 percent of the vote to 24.56 percent for Anies and Ganjar at 19.46 percent, surpassing expectations given the heavy campaign attacks on him in the final minutes before voting day, including rumors that he received a commission for the purchase of Mirage fighter jets, and the release of a documentary movie titled “Dirty Vote” which revealed systematic fraud by the government in Prabowo’s favor. By going over 50 percent, Prabowo’s team eliminates the need for a June runoff.
Prabowo undoubtedly owes his political resuscitation to Jokowi who, as a gesture of reconciliation, appointed Prabowo defense minister after defeating him decisively in the 2019 presidential sweepstakes, the second time he had bested him in sometimes ugly campaigning. Since then, the former Special Forces general has tried to change his image by attempting to be more friendly and welcoming, which seems to have succeeded in making some Indonesians forget the track record of the military which was suspected of being involved in crimes against humanity during the New Order era. Analysts argue that generational change gave Prabowo an advantage in the last election. With 52 percent of voters aged under 40, and most of them from Generation Z, they may not be aware of or consider the serious allegations against Prabowo as an outdated issue.
"Whatever the outcome of the Indonesian election, the importance of human rights issues and respect for democracy will still be front and center for the Indonesian people,” said Phil Robertson, the Asia Deputy Director of Human Rights Watch. “Elected officials need to be transparent and straightforward on these issues, starting with stating clearly where they stand, and why. That goes for both current rights issues as well as accountability and justice for what happened in the past."
How effectively Prabowo can carry out his own programs, let alone the outgoing president’s, is open to question. His Gerindra Party came third after Golkar, which was projected to win the second-biggest number of seats in Parliament. The two will join Prabowo’s government. However, the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle, which was spurned by Jokowi, as the president is universally known, in turning down the party’s candidate Ganjar in favor of Prabowo, retains its position as the biggest party in parliament. It remains unclear whether the PDI-P will be in opposition. Megawati Sukarnoputri, the daughter of Indonesia’s founding president, Sukarno, heads the PDI-P and has had a strained relationship with Jokowi since the president was first elected in 2014.
While the overwhelming vote should guarantee stability, everybody will be watching Prabowo, given his past history of repression and violence against regime opponents, and watching Jokowi’s moves to attempt to retain his clout. So far in Indonesia’s unsteady progress toward democracy since Suharto’s fall in 1998, succeeding presidents have paid little attention to their predecessors’ ambitions. The outgoing president’s major goals, economic growth, infrastructure development, the building of the faraway new capital Nusantara 1,200 km away in Kalimantan, remain largely unfulfilled despite annual GDP growth averaging about 5 percent during his presidency.
Accompanied by his running mate Gibran Rakabuming Raka – Widodo’s eldest son – Prabowo nonetheless sought to downplay fears, saying he would be president for the entire country and would embrace Anies and Ganjar. "We're grateful for the quick count results,” he said. “This victory must be a victory for all the people of Indonesia. We must await the official results from the General Elections Commission. Now that the campaign is over, we must reunite." Prabowo said. Although Anies and Ganjar said they will wait for the results of the official count, the results are unlikely to change.
Prabowo has repeatedly said that he gets along with Jokowi, who remains phenomenally popular with a 76 percent approval rating despite increasing concern about his flagging interest in democracy and combating corruption. Analysts argue convincingly that Jokowi was a big factor in Prabowo's victory, as seen from Prabowo's vote totals in Central and East Java, the two most populous provinces in Indonesia and are key areas for the victory of any presidential candidate.
Although Prabowo had never won in these two provinces, he dominated in this round with around 52 percent of the vote in Central Java and 66 percent in East Java. Even Ganjar, promoted by PDIP, lost in Central Java, the party's vote base. Ganjar also lost in PDIP voting pockets such as Bali, North Sumatra, and Yogyakarta.
Around 205 million citizens are expected to have voted at the national, provincial, district and city levels, simultaneously in one full day, making the Indonesian election one of the most complicated democratic events in the world. A total of 9,917 legislative candidates from 18 political parties competed for 580 House of Representatives seats, and around 250,000 other candidates competed for 20,000 seats at the regional level. More than 800,000 polling stations have been established throughout Indonesia, with around 5.7 million voting organizer group (KPPS) officers overseeing the massive logistics coordination.
Prabowo has repeatedly said that he gets along with Jokowi, and that their team has drawn up a master plan regarding Indonesia's future, a gesture he wants to show that they share a vision and mission. But many are worried that Prabowo's victory will return Indonesia to the days of the New Order dictatorship, with suppression of freedom of speech, widespread corruption, and military dominance.
Indeed, what is the future of Indonesia under Prabowo Subianto and Jokowi Jr, especially as Prabowo's leanings are more toward "nationalism" and a pushback against "democracy"? Just what kind of nationalism will it be? Answer that question and you may just get a whiff of a hint on whether international capital will come knocking on Prabowo's door.
There has been quite a bit of foreign investment under Jokowi but nowhere near where Indonesia needs to rock back from the possibility of Prabowo practicing economic protection or economic nationalism of key sectors, such as mining. Reminds me of China under Xi Jinping, who has continued to wrap in cottonwool what he calls China's strategic economic sectors, dominated by state-owned companies, much like Malaysia's government-linked corporations -- ones these so-called governments are afraid to open up to global market competition.
Prabowo will probably preside over an economy that remains by and large closeted to produce for the domestic market rather than international markets, thus incapable of moving up or unable to move up the changing product cycles hut remain stagnant sectors if new investments aren't forthcoming from international capital. As we've seen in Malaysia -- as distinct from its neighbor Singapore -- state capital injection into these sectors, which are for the most part import substitution industries of old -- cannot modernize because of heavy state protection. Meanwhile they will continue to breed and nurture renter-seekers or rentier capitalists.
The boost to the rupiah and the Jakarta stock market is merely kneejerk euphoria at the election result. Give it a few weeks and it'll go back to what it has been -- not one that sees a beeline of institutional investors making real investments but institutional investors making short-term portfolio capital gains. There still remains the problem of sticky inflation and high interest rate at 6% -- not exactly one that is likely to lick high inflation and provide a kickstart to the economy in real terms. If anything, inflation, I think, will stay high to make a sufficient fraction of the Indonesian population question not just Jokowi's policies but what Prabowo will bring to the table to ease their pain. Probably very little, my guess.
As for Probowo "drubbing" his election contenders, please, let's be real: they never stood a chance when survey after survey pointed to a Probowo victory by a huge margin. On that note, I am disappointed with Jokowi, who over his term as president, has blow more hot air than a steel plant at full capacity. The idea of building a new capital in Nusantara is a joke -- another area in which Indonesia is headed that it shouldn't if lessons from neighbors aren't learnt -- megaprojects, which tend to breed great degrees of inefficiencies and, just as worrisome, more corruption (as if the level of corruption in Indonesia isn't worrying already).
In fact there has been, under Jokowi, little structural and institutional reforms. Many of the structures and institutions are carry-overs from the corrupt Soeharto era, with amny of his cronies -- and new ones, all renkers -- still going gangbusters in the economy.