Horsetrading Begins in Thailand to Keep Military From Returning to Power

Country’s youth in strong support of insurgent parties

The overwhelming vote for opposition parties in Thailand’s May 14 general election is a clear signal once again that the country’s citizenry wants the military out of power, and maybe the royalty, as they have done in every election since 2001, only to have their governments ended by either military coup or malleable courts doing the military’s bidding.

Parties aligned with the military, including one headed by the deeply unpopular Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha, won only 15 percent of the parliamentary seats on Sunday. They aren’t likely to act immediately. As they have in the past, the generals are likely to play for time and let various legal and constitutional challenges play out. Their proxy, the junta-appointed senate, is already hard at work causing problems for the opposition as they build their coalition and seek support for their prime ministerial candidate.

One of the factors holding them back, besides the scale of their defeat, is the magnitude of the opposition victory by the two main opposition parties– 293 seats in the 500-member House of Representatives between the Move Forward Party headed by Pita Limjaroenrat, a fresh-faced 42-year-old Harvard-educated technocrat, and Paetongtarn Shinawatra, the equally fresh-faced 36-year-old daughter of the exiled Thaksin Shinawatra, who has played a major role in every election the country has held since he was exiled in 2006 and charged in absentia with corruption and abuse of power and other crimes.

Move Forward is supported by those 18 to 25 years of age who find the power elite to be archaic in this day and age. It has strong support from university student groups and associations.

But although Pita told local reporters on May 15 that he had talked to other parties besides Pheu Thai to put his coalition in line for 308 seats or more, by Tuesday, that was no longer clear. Assembling a coalition to govern without the military is difficult, given the rigged constitution that the generals, headed by junta leader Prayuth, wrote in 2017 to ensure their hold on power. Their handpicked 250-member Senate, which is likely to remain a solid bloc, has a hand in picking the prime minister of the 500-member house, meaning it takes 376 votes to govern, not 251. There are also concerns about the possibility of so-called “cobras” or “cobra parties” which, in Thailand's fluid political universe, can be made to change sides by the power of the purse.

There is also no indication which way the powerful royalty, headed by the erratic King Maha Vajiralongkorn, is leaning. Move Forward campaigned on a pledge to reduce the power of the country’s strict laws against lèse-majesté, or insulting the royalty – Article 112 of the Criminal Code, under which many people have been jailed for perceived slights against the monarchy, and for support for Thailand’s ratification of the International Criminal Court (ICC).

That is not likely to be to the liking of the king, who has increased the power of the monarchy since he took power on the death of his father, Bhumibol Adulyadej, in October 2016. The king has moved selected army units under the royal wing to create his own private force and has claimed jurisdiction over the vast property and business holdings of the Crown Property Bureau.

“There seems to be a game of 'chicken' developing,” said a western political analyst, ‘where Pita is assembling a coalition of democratic parties that he knows doesn't have enough support to get to the 376 votes required to be PM, and he's sort of daring the highly unpopular, military-backed Senate to try and block him -- so it is certain that things will heat up further politically. What's unknown is what the military is thinking about these developments. There's no reason yet to presume the military will reach for their guns again, but given that this is Thailand, that option is sadly never off the table.”

At the moment, the situation seems too fluid to make predictions. The multinational business community and foreign investors would welcome a change from the corruption and mismanagement of the military, which has ground the economy nearly to a stop with 2.7 percent annual GDP growth, among the lowest in Asia. Especially, said a western businessman, foreign investors are hoping for no more coups. Thailand has suffered 13 since 1936 when the military ended the absolute monarchy, the latest in 2014 which ended the democratically elected government headed by Yingluck Shinawatra, Thaksin’s sister, and brought on nine years of quasi-military rule disguised thinly as parliamentary democracy.

The US government is also paying close attention to the situation. Thailand is a longstanding US treaty ally. Another coup would likely bring US condemnation and United Nations disapproval, pushing military leaders closer to an embrace with China at a time when the US is attempting to rebuild its presence in Asia after the disaster of the Trump years. Thailand is an important linchpin in the area, given its proximity to Myanmar, where the junta there has conducted a murderous campaign to maintain itself in power after a 2021 coup. Thailand’s generals have been anything but cooperative in the effort to stop the Myanmar carnage.

The latest move by Move Forward is to invite Pheu Thai to form coalition. Teaming up with other pro-democracy parties such as Prachachart, Pheu Chart, Seri Ruam Thai and Chart Thai Pattana would corral about 313 votes, not enough for a bicameral sitting of 750 MPs. where they would need 376 votes.

“It may be difficult for Move Forward to invite conservative parties like Bhumjaithai, with 70 votes to join as its policies are too radical,” said a longtime Thai diplomat. “But Pheu Thai is more acceptable to conservative parties. So if Move Forward can’t form a government, Pheu Thai has a better chance of doing it. Move Forward should not hope on the dream of persuading some senators to vote for them because they belong to the military.”

If Bhumjaithai, which was a major component of the previous coalition led by the military-backed Palang Pracharat, decides to join, he said, “then they do not need many senate votes to form the government. But it would be a Pheu Thai-led government.” Property tycoon and fellow Pheu Thai candidate Srettha Thavisin Tuesday was quoted in local media as calling on both Bhumjaithai and Democrats to cross the line and vote for Pita.

That as well could extend to Pheu Thai under the right circumstances. "Many parties previously expressed their stance that they did not support the 2017 Constitution that gave senators the power to vote for the prime minister,” he said. “Now is the time for them to follow their stance."

That would fulfill the dreams of Thaksin, a telecommunications billionaire who has been pulling the Pheu Thai strings from Dubai for years. He has sworn to come back to Thailand even if he has to face the charges against him. But as a western observer put it, “Despite his public, online yearnings, there is little prospect that he would return any time soon. To do so without a negotiated agreement would amount to a one-way ticket to prison. Unlike in Cambodia, where PM Hun Sen has opposition leader Kem Sokha in house detention for 27 years, there is no established option for a person in Thailand to serve a prison sentence outside a penitentiary.”

Thaksin has always worried that if he was behind bars, he would be vulnerable to his legion of remaining enemies in the country. Only the palace can grant him a pardon, and so far, there has been no indication that it is prepared to do so. 

He is a master strategist, however, who has kept the Thaksin political machine alive and flourishing through coups and questionable court actions from 4,900 km away in Dubai since his ouster in 2006 at the hands of a military coup. Move Forward would never allow Pheu Thai to run the place in their name, a western NGO source said.

But Thaksin and his surrogates are willing to make deals that the relatively inexperienced Pita may not be capable of. He and the military or mortal enemies and there appears little chance the junta we'd let him back into the country under any circumstances to lead. But through his surrogates, as he has for 17 years, he is more than capable of leading his forces from afar. Under some unforeseen circumstance, that could return him to power.