Indonesia’s Jokowi Rumored in Golkar Party Coup

President said to be seeking to prolong political life after he leaves office

There is speculation in Jakarta, denied by the palace, that the ouster of Airlangga Hartarto as the leader of the Golkar Party, Indonesia’s second-biggest and oldest, was related to a possible move by Joko Widodo to align the party with the outgoing president’s interests via two of his loyalists, Industry Minister Agus Gumiwang Kartasasmita and Investment Minister Bahlil Lahadalia, who are reportedly working to expedite the party's EGM in a bid to take control.

Airlangga‘s ouster came amid legal proceedings related to a two-year-old corruption case involving crude palm oil export permits. Sources also say the Nasdem Party’s sudden decision to abandon Jakarta gubernatorial candidate Anais Baswedan, who served in the post from 2017 to 2022, was under pressure to align the party with the incoming administration amid rumors party chief Surya Paloh was threatened with investigation by the KPK. Surya subsequently pledged his full support for the incoming administration.

The Presidential Palace, through Staff Coordinator Ari Dwipayana, has denied the allegations, and party elites assert that no pressure was involved against Airlingga. Nonetheless, speculation persists that Jokowi is seeking to exert control over Golkar to preserve his clout in domestic politics, including influencing ministerial appointments in the forthcoming Prabowo administration. Golkar is a key target due to its perceived manageability and its significant representation in the House of Representatives.

Unlike his presidential predecessors Megawati and Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono, Jokowi does not belong to a political party. His relationship with the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDIP), which supported him through two presidential terms, has soured after he chose not to endorse Ganjar Pranowo, PDIP’s 2024 electoral candidate, instead unofficially throwing his weight behind Prabowo Subianto, who, along with Jokowi’s son Gibran Rakabuming, achieved a decisive first-round victory. Jokowi's affiliation with PDIP remains ambiguous, with Gibran previously expelled from the party.

Additionally, Jokowi's effort to help the Indonesian Solidarity Party (PSI), led by his youngest son Kaesang Pangarep, gain parliamentary representation, was unsuccessful. Golkar won 15.28 percent of the votes, becoming the second-largest party in the 2024 legislative elections, following PDIP. Founded in 1959, Golkar was the ruling party during the New Order era under Suharto's government.

Airlangga announced his resignation via a video on August 11, framing his decision as a measure to maintain Golkar’s unity and facilitate a smooth transition to the incoming Prabowo administration. His announcement came as a surprise, given the expectation that he would seek re-election as Golkar chairman at the December National Congress. His tenure was widely regarded as successful, marked by an increase in Golkar’s seats in the lower house from 85 in 2019 to 102 in 2024.

A day after the announcement, Golkar convened a plenary meeting and appointed Agus Gumiwang as the acting Chairman. Agus, currently industry minister, is a known Jokowi ally who was expelled from the party in 2014 for supporting Jokowi in the presidential election rather than Prabowo, the party's candidate at that time, but his membership was reinstated two years later. As interim chairman, Agus is responsible for organizing an extraordinary congress to elect a new Golkar chairman, which is now scheduled for August 20, ahead of the previously planned December date. Speculation suggests that Bahlil Lahadalia may be selected as 2024-2029 chairman during this congress. Bahlil is rumored to have promised Jokowi the position of chairman of the Golkar Advisory Council, a role previously held by Suharto, who Suharto never served as Golkar's chairman but was a pivotal figure in the party during the New Order era, shaping party policies through his role as chairman of the advisory board.

The bond between Bahlil and Jokowi strengthened when Bahlil became chairman of the Indonesian Young Entrepreneurs Association (Hipmi) during its 26th term. In November 2018, Bahlil founded the National Young Entrepreneurs Volunteers (Repnas), which supported the Jokowi-Ma’ruf Amin ticket in the 2019 presidential election. Following Jokowi’s re-election in 2019, Bahlil was appointed Head of the Investment Coordinating Board (BKPM) and later Minister of Investment. Having been actively involved with Golkar from 2001 to 2014, Bahlil is now viewed as the leading candidate to succeed Airlangga. Gibran and Jokowi face limited prospects for leading Golkar due to their failure to meet the party’s requirement of at least five years as an active member, unless these rules are amended.

Political analyst Ujang Komarudin from Al Azhar University Indonesia observes that there appears to be an “invisible hand of power” seeking to assert control over Golkar. He notes that the approach to removing Airlangga involved legal actions against him. “I perceive significant pressure being applied to Airlangga, with the possibility of the legal case being intensified,” Ujang remarked. In the wake of Airlangga’s resignation, Ujang predicts that individuals aligned with the current power structure will be appointed to key positions within Golkar to ensure the party remains under control.

Airlangga was recently summoned by the Attorney General's Office to testify in a corruption case concerning crude palm oil (CPO) export permits and their derivatives for 2021-2022 at the Ministry of Trade. The court has already sentenced five defendants, including Lin Che Wei, a member of the Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs' assistance team, to prison terms ranging from five to eight years. Lin frequently implicated Airlangga and former Trade Minister Muhammad Lutfi. As Coordinating Minister for Economic Affairs and Chairman of the Steering Committee of the Palm Oil Plantation Fund Management Agency (BPDPKS), Airlangga is alleged to have influenced policies that benefited palm oil companies, while Lutfi is suspected of implementing these policies. The case has reportedly resulted in an estimated financial loss of Rp6.47 trillion to the state.

According to investigative magazine Tempo, efforts by Golkar figures allied with Jokowi to remove Airlangga began prior to the February presidential election. At that time, they contended that Airlangga had failed to meet the party’s expectations of becoming a presidential candidate. This pressure continued even after Golkar joined the Koalisi Indonesia Maju (KIM) to support Prabowo, the coalition's presidential candidate. These figures not only engaged with senior Golkar politicians but also actively lobbied the party's Regional Leadership Councils, securing support from over 20 councils, primarily outside Java. Their objective was to swiftly seize control of Golkar.

According to Tempo’s reports, a source within Golkar suggested that Airlangga's resignation was triggered by a summons from the Attorney General's Office requesting clarification on his involvement in the crude palm oil export permit corruption case. However, the Attorney General's Office has denied issuing such a summons. The situation deteriorated as Airlangga faced threats of forcible detention and a search of his home if he didn’t promptly resign. On August 10, Airlangga was instructed to record a resignation video.

In addition to Airlangga, two other senior party officials are also implicated in corruption cases. PDIP Secretary-General Hasto Kristiyanto, who has recently been critical of the Jokowi administration, has frequently been summoned by the KPK to testify in various corruption investigations. Muhaimin Iskandar, Chairman of the National Awakening Party (PKB), was last questioned by the KPK in September 2023 during the election campaign, with PKB supporting presidential candidate Anies Baswedan. Muhaimin is suspected of involvement in corruption at the Ministry of Manpower during his tenure as minister. He is also said to be concerned that his leadership of PKB might be challenged by the Nahdlatul Ulama (NU), Indonesia’s largest Muslim organization, which has strong ties to Jokowi.