The Myanmar Junta Leader’s Moscow Win
Meanwhile, the decimation of USAID surfaces in a war-torn nation
By: David Scott Mathieson
Myanmar strongman Senior General Min Aung Hlaing paid a high-profile state visit to Russia this week, possibly the highest level foreign trip since he staged the coup d’etat in February 2021 that plunged his country into disaster. He was received by President Vladimir Putin in the Kremlin where the two leaders embraced, before a series of official meetings deepened the relationship with a series of bilateral agreements on everything including trade, education, defense, and the promise of nuclear energy programs.
The meeting’s low point, or highest mirth point, was when Min Aung Hlaing, the head of the State Administration Council (SAC), presented Putin with the copy of a rare book from 1942, which wrote about a prophecy from the time of the Buddha. Apparently, a Russian king would emerge centuries later who would restore a golden age of Buddhism through being a master of weapons, a Myanmar king would emerge at the same time and the two would become close friends.
As autocratic ingratiation goes, this was a bizarre performance even by Min Aung Hlaing’s standards. It was rendered more surreal by some reference to the Russian king being a rat during Buddha’s time, and as cycles of reincarnation took effect eventually became the Russian dictator.
The visit was clearly a symbolic boost for the Myanmar strongman, who like Putin is holding onto power but losing huge numbers of manpower in their respective wars. The larger message must also be membership in the growing club of dictators around the world, of which Min Aung Hlaing might be a minor league thug, but who clearly enjoys the patronage of the godfather of autocrats, Vladimir Putin. The visit also thumbed the nose at the Prosecutor of the International Criminal Court (ICC) who is seeking an arrest warrant for the SAC leader for war crimes charges and calls for an international arms embargo from the United Nations Human Rights Council.
It is inescapable to delink Min Aung Hlaing’s trip with the recent debacle of US president Donald Trump and J.D. Vance bullying Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. The gutting of the US Agency for International Development (USAID) support to a whole range of humanitarian, health, civil society, media and civilian protection programs for Myanmar is another reason why Min Aung Hlaing should be overjoyed with the Moscow trip.
If the new Trump administration continues its Moscow drift, the revolutionary forces fighting the SAC can no longer expect non-lethal support for their struggle from Washington: it is a dark but not inconceivable possibility that assuming Trump and Vance ever consider taking a side in the Myanmar conflict, it could be with the junta.
It must be remembered this is not a new relationship. Thousands if not tens of thousands of Myanmar military personnel of the tri-services, army, navy and air force, have been trained in Moscow for over two decades. This has included officers trained in nuclear physics, according to defectors over 15 years ago. Russia has supplied the Myanmar military with Hind Mi-35 helicopter gunships, Yak-130 light attack aircraft, and MiG-29 and Su-30 fighter planes since at least the early 2000s. Drone sales have reportedly increased. All of these weapons platforms have been instrumental in ensuring regime survival in Moscow and Naypyidaw, but have not been decisive in pushing back insurgent attacks in Myanmar or delivering a victory in Ukraine.
There have been multiple high-level official visits before and after the coup. Sergei Shoigu, the former defense minister, visited Min Aung Hlaing a week before he staged his coup. Min Aung Hlaing presented Shoigu with a formal Myanmar title during the latest visit. Nikolay Listopadov, ambassador between 2016 and 2023, was a fluent Burmese language speaker, and first served in Myanmar in the early 1980s. While Myanmar might not be a first-order foreign policy priority for Moscow, it is nevertheless a firm if mercurial relationship. Min Aung Hlaing with this visit will also signal to China that he has other powerful friends and won't be easily kicked around by Beijing.
Putin and Min Aung Hlaing first met at the Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok in September 2022. Min Aung Hlaing, obviously enjoying his groveling to Putin, told him: “I am proud of you that under your leadership Russia has become a number one country in the world, if I may say so. We would like to describe you not as the leader of Russia but the leader of the world, because you are monitoring and masterminding stability in the world.” His latest visit and the 2,000-year prophesy performance strongly suggests the relationship is locked in.
It is the resurfacing of nuclear energy support that should be most concerning. In his closing speech, Putin said, “(a)n agreement has been reached for the construction of small-scale nuclear power plants in Myanmar, which will significantly contribute to the country’s electricity supply.” This possibly resurrects suspicions from nearly two decades ago that the previous military regime wanted to purchase a nuclear reactor from Russia, and may have been pursuing some form of nuclear weapons program.
It was suspected at the time that North Korea may have had some role. However, any possibility of nuclear ties must be treated with great caution. There is already far too much alarmist reporting over Myanmar, and hysteria over a possible weapons program are both premature and dangerous.
Min Aung Hlaing’s visit may be a minor development in a rapidly changing global order, but it is momentous for Myanmar. It underscores that the military has a powerful ally in Putin, who in turn seems to have a friend in Trump. The center of gravity for the conflict in Myanmar is still firmly on the ground, but international winds are shifting and may impact that equation in the near future if Moscow increases its role in the country.
David Scott Mathieson is an independent analyst working on conflict, humanitarian and human rights issues on Myanmar