North Korea in the Biden Era: Strategy and Trajectory
Handling Kim Jong-un in the post-Trump presidency
By: Bum-Cheol Shin
As the Biden administration conducts a policy review on North Korea, the expectation of new changes in the nuclear issue and inter-Korean relations is increasing. However, there are conflicting views on these two issues. Some of the most important are as follows.
First, is North Korea really serious about denuclearization? Some still say that it is important to have early dialogue even with concessions, since North Korea's ultimate goal for nuclear development is to have the upper ground in negotiations. Others, however, believe that North Korea’s ultimate goal is to possess nuclear weapons and that negotiations are only a tactic to create conditions to achieve that goal.
Second, what will the US’s policy look like? Some paint a rosy picture, hoping that the halted peace process can soon be revitalized as the Biden administration resumes dialogue with the North. Others expect Washington to put pressure on Pyongyang over not only its nuclear program but also human rights violations.
Third, will the Moon Jae-in administration’s North Korean policy change? Many expect Biden’s policy towards North Korea to differ from Trump’s. In that case, should South Korea maintain its previous position, or should it alter its policy stance according to the Biden administration’s decisions? The answer will differ according to whether one considers the past three years as a success or a failure.
As things stand now, North Korea flaunts its nuclear power and negotiations over denuclearization have yet to resume. What will South Korea’s future be as it seeks a path between the nuclear-obsessed North Korea and the US, which is strongly committed to denuclearizing North Korea?