Wishful thinking is not a form of analysis of any situation let alone something as complex as Russia's and China's relationship with each other and their individual relationships with North Korea.
China needs stability in Northeast Asia and chaos everywhere else. In my assessment, China's recent return to attempts at diplomacy with its Northeast Asian neighbours like South Korea and Japan is also partially motivated by its witnessing of the revived Russia-North Korea bilateral relationship. It comes from a position of insecurity, not from the fact that South and Japan are already official treaty allies with the US (that's already a known and factored-in reality), but from the fact that it faces the very real possibility of losing influence over North Korea when Russia is more willing than it is to provide military tech transfers and food/financial aid to Pyongyang.
Just as China uses North Korea as its proxy to be an annoying attack dog (credible, but still annoying) against the US and her allies in Northeast Asia, it too fears Russia goading North Korea to become the same annoyance to China. Why? Because a far bigger prize exists in the mind of Xi Jinping and the CCP: Chinese domination of the Russian Far East and perhaps even future subjugation/annexation of Vladivostok. Not only is Vladivostok one of Russia's most important ports (being the only one on its Pacific coast and warm-water all year round), it used to be Chinese territory up till the Qing Dynasty when it got signed away in one of the "Unequal Treaties" imperial China signed with various Western powers. The collective legacies of the "Unequal Treaties" still rankles and serves as grist for the mill of Chinese ultranationalism whipped up by the CCP from time to time, though China has taken care to keep those about Haishenwai (the original name of Vladivostok) on a particularly short leash.
Vladivostok would also be of significance to China, as it would allow China to mount a naval breakout into the Pacific and bypass the US First Island Chain entirely, making US containment strategy on China fall apart. China's "limitless friendship" with Russia has to be viewed in the light of its motivations to not only be the senior bilateral partner, but also on what it materially desires on Russian lands in the Far East. China with the riches of Siberia unlocked for its exclusive usage, and access/control of Vladivostok, would make the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland a moot point. Nobody will be able to stop the Chinese dragon if it ever gets to this level of dominance.
And ironically, one potential distraction is beginning to grow roots in Beijing's mind: the burgeoning Russia-North Korean bromance in international diplomacy. It's a common thing for sharp blades to cut both ways.
Excellent analysis of a rapidly-evolving situation by Shim Jae-Hoon.
Wishful thinking is not a form of analysis of any situation let alone something as complex as Russia's and China's relationship with each other and their individual relationships with North Korea.
Same putrid old rubbish by you 🥱 🤡💩
Good article.
China needs stability in Northeast Asia and chaos everywhere else. In my assessment, China's recent return to attempts at diplomacy with its Northeast Asian neighbours like South Korea and Japan is also partially motivated by its witnessing of the revived Russia-North Korea bilateral relationship. It comes from a position of insecurity, not from the fact that South and Japan are already official treaty allies with the US (that's already a known and factored-in reality), but from the fact that it faces the very real possibility of losing influence over North Korea when Russia is more willing than it is to provide military tech transfers and food/financial aid to Pyongyang.
Just as China uses North Korea as its proxy to be an annoying attack dog (credible, but still annoying) against the US and her allies in Northeast Asia, it too fears Russia goading North Korea to become the same annoyance to China. Why? Because a far bigger prize exists in the mind of Xi Jinping and the CCP: Chinese domination of the Russian Far East and perhaps even future subjugation/annexation of Vladivostok. Not only is Vladivostok one of Russia's most important ports (being the only one on its Pacific coast and warm-water all year round), it used to be Chinese territory up till the Qing Dynasty when it got signed away in one of the "Unequal Treaties" imperial China signed with various Western powers. The collective legacies of the "Unequal Treaties" still rankles and serves as grist for the mill of Chinese ultranationalism whipped up by the CCP from time to time, though China has taken care to keep those about Haishenwai (the original name of Vladivostok) on a particularly short leash.
Vladivostok would also be of significance to China, as it would allow China to mount a naval breakout into the Pacific and bypass the US First Island Chain entirely, making US containment strategy on China fall apart. China's "limitless friendship" with Russia has to be viewed in the light of its motivations to not only be the senior bilateral partner, but also on what it materially desires on Russian lands in the Far East. China with the riches of Siberia unlocked for its exclusive usage, and access/control of Vladivostok, would make the reunification of Taiwan with the mainland a moot point. Nobody will be able to stop the Chinese dragon if it ever gets to this level of dominance.
And ironically, one potential distraction is beginning to grow roots in Beijing's mind: the burgeoning Russia-North Korean bromance in international diplomacy. It's a common thing for sharp blades to cut both ways.
Excellent summation.