Thai Leading Opposition Party Looks for Landslide in May Elections
Hopes of ousting military government looking good
By: Pithaya Pookaman
After more than eight years of lackluster economic performance and broken promises by the government headed by ex-coup leader Gen. Prayuth Chan-ocha, polls show Thailand appears to have had enough of the military-dominated government and yearns for a change. A persistent economic slump and government mismanagement of crises affecting people’s lives, not to mention perceptions of a Covid-19 debacle, have played into the hands of the main opposition Pheu Thai Party, which won the 2019 general election but was prevented from forming a government by the military-nominated 250 senators who voted to keep Prayuth in power.
According to the polls, with the exception of those conducted by the Thai Army and the Ministry of Interior, Pheu Thai is expected to even surpass the 2011 Pheu Thai victory amassed by the party led by Yingluck Shinawatra, the sister of the one-time prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, which won 265 House seats and formed a government with Yingluck as PM. The polls predict that Pheu Thai would carry all northern, northeastern and central provinces, winning both constituency seats and proportional seats. While Pheu Thai has never won Bangkok or gained a foothold in the South, the current polls have Pheu Thai leading in most Bangkok constituencies, followed by Move Forward Party a distant second, while in the south Pheu Thai comes second to RTSP and Prachachart Party and would certainly pick up southern house seats.
Since the last election, which saw defections of so-called ‘cobras’ from Pheu Thai to parties allied with the military, the political landscape has now turned upside down. Many politicians now view Prayuth and the military-backed Palang Pracharat Party (PPP) headed by Gen. Prawit Wongsuwan, Prayuth’s comrade-in-arms and a junta leader involved in the 2014 military coup, as political liabilities. Many key PPP members including Somsak Thepsuthin, Suchard Tancharoen, and Suriya Juangroongruangkit have rejoined Pheu Thai, giving it a shot in the arm that could propel it towards a landslide and enable it to form a government.
With fewer than 40 days remaining until the general election on May 14, the situation looks grim for Palang Pracharat due to defections to Pheu Thai and also to Prayuth’s newly-formed Ruam Thai Sangchart Party (RTSP), the latter consisting mainly of disenchanted politicians from the Democrat Party. The mood is a far cry from that among pro-democracy parties such as Pheu Thai, Move Forward Party, the successor to the disbanded Future Forward Party which made waves among the younger generation, Seri Ruam Thai Party, and Thai Sang Thai Party.
The pro-democracy parties have been able to capitalize on the failure of Prayuth’s economic policies, his ineptness in solving the country’s problems, his heavy-handed style of governance, a level of corruption unprecedented even for Thailand, the rise of narcotic addiction and the drug trade, and Prayuth’s indifference towards the plight of the poor. None of the campaign promises made by Prayuth and Palang Pracharat have been carried out. This is in sharp contrast to Pheu Thai and its predecessors, Thai Rak Thai and Palang Prachachon which were disbanded by the military through its subservient courts.
Pheu Thai has doubled down on its populist policies by pledging to increase the country’s minimum wage to Bt600 (US$17.55) within a year after taking over the government, replacing compulsory military conscription with voluntary enlistment, and promoting blockchain technology to mobilize foreign capital. But perhaps the most innovative and far-reaching policy thus far is the ’Digital Wallet,’ a financial aid for families that earn a monthly income of Bt20,000 or less. This digital wallet would be given to Thais aged 16 and older with the aim of stimulating the economy. The recipients would have to spend the money at community shops within a four-km radius of their homes within six months. This is a brainchild of business tycoon Srettha Thavisin, who joined Pheu Thai as chief adviser and is one of the party’s three prime ministerial candidates.
While the amount of the digital wallet has yet to be announced, the scheme itself outbids all the populist policies hitherto proposed by the rival parties by a big margin, making Srettha a viable candidate for the country’s top job. Although Paetongtarn Shinawatra, daughter of former PM Thaksin Shinawatra and one of the prime ministerial candidates, enjoys the highest popularity ranking in the country, she may relinquish her bid for PM post in favor of Srettha or another Pheu Thai candidate due to her pregnancy and post-delivery condition, but specifically in order to preempt any allegation from rival parties of acting for the benefit of Shinawatra family. But for now, she is Pheu Thai’s standard bearer in the drive to unseat Prayuth and win a majority in the 500-seat House of Representatives.
If Pheu Thai can maintain its present momentum up till election day and surpass a majority of 250 House seats and even reach over 300 House seats, it is possible that the party can team up with other pro-democracy parties such as Move Forward Party, Seri Ruam Thai Party, Thai Sang Thai Party, Pracharat Party, and smaller parties to achieve a parliamentary majority of 276 seats to form a government. Although the military-appointed 250 senators are tasked to vote for Prayuth or his alternatives, they are split between Prayuth and the Prawit factions. Some senators may see the futility to vote for any of them if either of them heads a minority government that can be easily toppled in parliament. It is therefore not unimaginable to see the change of hearts among these senators when it comes to voting for a PM in such a circumstance.
The youth vote is expected to play an important role, especially those aged 18-25, who do not vote for military parties or parties allied with them. A large portion tends to vote for Move Forward Party, whose emphasis is on promoting democracy, dismantling the authoritarian political structure and ensuring justice. Those 25 and older tend to favor Pheu Thai. Those who would vote for Prayuth and the military-nominated parties and their allies are generally aged 45 years or older as well as southern voters who for generations have been dominated by the Democrat Party which they see as representing the establishment.
As the presumed Pheu Thai juggernaut begins to roll, the party has taken a big slice of the youth votes from Move Forward, especially those aged 18 to 25. The party also fares much better than Move Forward among the 25-35 age group where support for Move Forward begins to decline. The Nida Poll, which is regarded as the most reliable, finds that university students in many southern provinces prefer Pheu Thai to Move Forward.
A better-than-expected showing of Pheu Thai in Bangkok must also be attributed to the landslide gubernatorial victory of Chadchart Sittipunt, presently Bangkok governor and former Pheu Thai member and Transport Minister in the Yingluck government. Besides traditional Pheu Thai’s supporters among the rural population and pro-democracy ‘Red Shirts’, the party’s populist platform also is gaining traction among the middle class who think they would benefit from an economic turnaround, not to mention the upgraded universal health care under a Pheu Thai led government. These people may not necessarily like Pheu Thai but they see that their livelihood would be better served rather than the present government and may willingly or unwillingly join the bandwagon to create an electoral avalanche as some opinion polls are predicting.
To prevent a landslide, Prayuth must employ every means at his disposal such as the 2017 constitution which he wrote himself, the constitutional court, the counter-corruption commission, the election commission, and other state apparatus to act in his favor. The election commission is already at work to draw boundaries of election constituencies to favor Prayuth. Lately, the commission has finished drafting election ballots omitting party logos which, according to many observers, is designed to confuse the voters.
But barring any blunders by Pheu Thai, and barring any untoward actions by the election commission and constitutional court in disqualifying Pheu Thai MPs or even disbanding the party altogether -- an always-present danger -- the Pheu Thai landslide in the next election will not be stopped by technicalities and Thailand may herald a new page of democratic revival after more than a decade of military-backed rule.
Pithaya Pookaman is a former Thai ambassador to several countries and a regular contributor to Asia Sentinel