Trump’s Canada Bid Needs a Commonwealth Challenge

Chance for Commonwealth to test whether soft power still works

By: John Elliott

Don’t get too chummy, Don

Does soft diplomatic power have any role in a world hit by US President Donald Trump’s brutal and transactional ambitions? If it might, the Commonwealth should try after years of declining importance and significance to assume a global role by collectively opposing Trump’s threats to annex Canada as America’s 51st state.

The threats, which began on February 9, test the ability and willingness of the Commonwealth to stand up for one of its members. Trump may of course only be aiming to win trade and other concessions from Ottawa – he’s just imposed heavy metal tariffs. But that surely should not be taken as a reason for the Commonwealth to stay on the sidelines.

A US take-over, unlikely though it is, would also presumably mean the end of British sovereignty over Canada, challenging King Charles in his role as Canada’s constitutional (though largely ceremonial) head of state. The King demonstrated support by meeting Justin Trudeau, Canada’s outgoing prime minister (below), on March 4 at his Sandringham House retreat in eastern England. (A day earlier, he met Volodymyr Zelensky, the Ukrainian prime minister).

The King is also head of the Commonwealth of Nations, which used to be called the British Commonwealth and has 56 widely diverse member states. On March 10, which was Commonwealth Day, he issued a telling statement appealing “in these uncertain times” for the organization’s nations to “come together in the spirit of support and, crucially, friendship”. There was nothing more important than “to restore the disrupted harmony of our entire planet.”

The relatively short statement was given considerable advance publicity in the British media, indicating that the King wanted his remarks to be interpreted as relevant for Canada and Ukraine.

The visits to Sandringham were robust declarations of opposition to Trump, not just by the British monarch, but also the UK government that has so far done little to support Canada. For prime minister Keir Starmer, staying on good terms with Trump seems a higher priority.

There are all sorts of ramifications here, not least what happens to the King’s invitation to Trump to make an early state visit to the UK. That invitation was delivered personally by Starmer when he visited the White House on February 27 on a please-be-gentle-with-us mission. But opinion polls have opposed the visit ever since Trump and his vice president ambushed Zelensky a day later.

Trump gets on well with the King, and with his son and heir-apparent Prince William. He can scarcely have been pleased when his royal friend showed such diplomatic opposition.

Since Trump made the Canada claim along with threats to take over the Panama Canal and Greenland, attention has focused on the Canadian reaction from now-former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, who Trump sarcastically dismissed as Governor Trudeau.

Mark Carney, former governor of both the UK’s and Canada’s reserve banks, is now taking over as prime minister. With considerable international experience, he is expected to be an equally robust defender of Canada’s interests and might even gain some respect from Trump.

The Commonwealth could step in to present a unified opposition. This would enable it to heal internal rifts that have existed since 2013 when it went ahead with its biennial summit in Sri Lanka. Canada had unsuccessfully led protests that this would implicitly endorse the then cruel and corrupt regime of President Mahinda Rajapaksa.

But the Commonwealth has not been seen as a major international force since the 1980s when it played a leading role with a series of declarations and other actions that helped end apartheid in South Africa. It has hit the headlines when it has suspended countries such as Nigeria, Fiji and Pakistan from membership after they became dictatorships, but there is little evidence that this hastened returns to democratic rule.

It has mostly stood aside from disputes such as Diego Garcia, a small island and key US defense base that is part of the British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). After years of resisting international pressure, the UK is trying to return the island to Mauritius, which is part of the Commonwealth, but the terms have been challenged by Trump.

The basic problem is that its members do not want it interfering in their affairs and do not see it as an organization with any potential. They go along with soft power declarations on laudable subjects ranging from human rights and social well-being to inclusive growth and climate change. These are hotly debated to reduce their impact and are then frequently ignored to varying degrees by member countries.

The biggest members such as Australia and Canada pay the Commonwealth little attention and are more concerned with internal pressures to declare themselves republics, while remaining a member, as India has done. (Royal tours to most member countries face increasing risks of being blighted by sovereignty demands).

There was talk in 2018 of India taking a more active role and possibly setting up a Commonwealth business and investment hub in Delhi. That was part of a move to devolve management of the organization from London’s stately Marlborough House.

The idea appealed at the time to prime minister Narendra Modi, who was looking for multi-lateral organizations to raise India’s profile. China not being a member was a bonus, but Modi has achieved his desired status elsewhere, notably through India’s chairmanship last year of the G20 grouping and its membership of BRICS.

India and other big countries do contribute to Commonwealth funding and activities, but the organization is primarily of benefit to its 33 designated small states that have populations under 1.5m or are vulnerable due to their size, geography, or economies. They gain by having access outside their usual areas of influence, along with help on a variety of activities such as dealing with climate changes.

Unless something changes, that looks like being the Commonwealth’s most practical central role, alongside good works pursued by the myriad of well-meaning soft-power organizations totaling maybe 70-100 that come under the Commonwealth umbrella.

Trump’s attack on Canada, however, provides an opportunity for something greater. The member countries’ wide variety of interests may make a fully unified approach difficult. Many countries like India will not want to upset Trump, but that need not stop a Commonwealth-based approach.

A leader would be needed to initiate action. The King is ruled out for constitutional reasons, and his prime minister has other Trump priorities.

That probably leaves it to the new secretary general, Shirley Ayorkor Botchwey (above), who has been Ghana’s foreign minister, and takes over next month. Maybe she could harness a strident leader from one of the Pacific Islands or other small states to help corral members.

It is easy to suggest that Trump would just laugh and get his vice president JD Vance to make a withering speech. But would he really be able to ignore a declaration from most if not all of 53 nations telling him to withdraw his Canada threats? Sure, that’s a tough call, but if the Commonwealth does not rise to this challenge, it is difficult to see it ever rising to anything else.

John Elliott is Asia Sentinel’s South Asia correspondent. He blogs at Riding the Elephant.